听力文本
yes, so the question is
请提问 他的问题是
if the news of the day is not financial crisis that's going to lead to different results from periods that are good times
如果现在人们所关注的不是金融危机 那么大选的结果也许会和经济景气的时候有所不同
yes look at Bill Clinton's election in 1992 with his campaign strategy putting signs up everywhere
是的 1992年克林顿大选时 他的竞选策略之一 是常把经济形势放在嘴边
it's the economy stupid with the campaign slogan always to focus on the recession
一个对经济一窍不通的人把关注经济萧条作文竞选口号
figuring that would be to the advantage of the Democrats
也许因为他们认为这对民主党人的选情有利
and it probably was
而事实似乎也是这样的
in the next election 1996 the financial situation was much better
在96年的大选中 经济形势已经好了很多
and cultural issues became much more important in that election
在那届大选中 文化问题变得更为突出
although the actual voting patterns were very very similar
不过这两届的选情非常的相似
in 1992 and in 1996
在1992年和1996年
and time is when military concerns are foremost
有的大选中军事问题是关注焦点

2004 would be a good example
2004年就是个很好的例子
that tends to benefit the Republicans
这常常有利于共和党人
who do better in polling on national security issues
人们对他们处理国家安全的能力更为信任
although this election a bit different
尽管这届大选中有些不同
because most of the populace does not think the Republican strategy in Iraq has been successful so they've actually lost ground
因为大部分民众认为共和党在伊拉克问题上很不成功 使得他们失去了一些信任
but in 2004 that was a big selling point for them
但军事问题的确是04竞选的大焦点
so yes in general people would say that
所以人们普遍认为
if security...
安全问题
crime issues
犯罪问题
that was something that really aided Ronald Reagan's election
等相关的问题的确在里根竞选时助了他一臂之力
also the election of George Bush Senior in 1988
也在老布什88年的大选中起过作用
these are years when crime was on the rise
那时候犯罪率攀升
people were afraid of it
使民众为之担忧
Republicans more hard-line that helps them
而共和党人在打击犯罪上更为强硬 帮他们获得了选票
violent crime has declined quite a bit since then
在此之后暴力犯罪的情况有所缓解
it's not as much of an issue
不再是人们关注的热点问题
and so now yes it's economic issues and that helps the Democrats
而现在最受关注的是经济问题 这的确帮了共和党人一把
that's pretty well established those different patterns
不同的政党似乎擅长于处理不同的问题

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。