听力文本

yes
请提问
one of those new parties that sprang up in the 1800s was the Republican Party
19世纪出现的新政党之一就是共和党
which was successful
它的发展很成功
the rest didn't last
其余政党都没有存活下来
remember the Republicans split in 1912 with Teddy Roosevelt forming his Progressive Party
共和党在1912年曾经分裂 当时西奥多卢瑟福成立了他的进步党
but got back together again
但后来共和党又重新合并
our political system with the winner take all
我们胜者获全票的政治体制
especially in the electoral college
尤其是在选举人团制度上的胜者全胜
really makes it hard for 3rd parties
使得第三政党很难立足

the only thing that could happen is a real sort of redivision
唯一有可能的是出现真正意义上的政党重组
what if the Democrats were to go from victory to victory
想一想 如果民主党在大选中一而再再而三地获胜
and the left wing of the Democratic Party got much stronger
民主党的左翼会日趋强壮
I could see the conservative Democrats
这时保守派民主党人
the blue dog Democrats separating
如蓝狗民主党就会分裂出来
joining with a faction of the Republican Party
可能与共和党的某个派系结合
and perhaps making a new party
也许由此组建出一个新政党
but then you have a split of sort of the far right
但这样的分裂之后会出现极右
a center far left
和极左之间的矛盾
and that's not gonna be stable though
他们不可能长期地稳定共存
it's gonna go back to a two-party system somehow
最终还是会回归到两党的体系上来
so I think you could have a 3rd party reorientation
所以我想有可能出现3党共存的局面
but I don't see 3 parties being naturally competitive
但从本质上讲这种局面不会长久
just because of the way our Constitution is devised
虽然宪法规定可以成立新的政党
so now I'm wary about looking into an crystal ball in making any predictions
你让我看着"水晶球"来做预言时 我会变得很谨慎
I certainly know a lot of my predictions have been wildly wrong as I look back
因为我知道我有过很多预测最后都是大错特错的
my family would testify to that
我的家人可以证明这一点

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。