听力文本

And you go year back early to the days of Tammany Hall
回到坦慕尼协会仍存在之时
It's interesting they're awful lot of presidential candidates who came out of New York
曾有多位总统候选人来自纽约的候选人
Who made their reputation fighting against Tammany Hall, fighting for good government
声称反对坦慕尼协会的暗箱操作，认为应该建立一个清白的政府
Some of those were democrats, some were republicans
这些人有的来自民主党，有的来自共和党
But it was such a issue that became a campaign issue itself was the struggle against the political machines
但当时，大选的焦点话题之一就是与政治集团之间的斗争
Yeah great comment! yes! I believe so
谢谢你的评论！请提问！我想是这样的
Does anyone know our polls are mostly done by phone?
你们不知道民意调查大部分是通过电话进行吗?
So the comment is i was involved in the discussion with some people today found the fact thatthe young people 28 and under don't have landlines.
我想说的是今天我在和一些人讨论了之后发现28岁以下的年轻人几乎都不用固定电话。
And I was making phone call for my candidate, You know, all landline numbers
我为候选人做过电话调查，但调查名单上的号码都是固话号码
Can you not do polls on cell phones?
对手机用户不能进行民意调查吗?
Oh, I never even thought of that
我从来没想过这个问题
That would totally mass up the poll, wouldn't it
要是这样，调查不会难进行吗?

Well the pollsters must have a equation to take that into count
不过调查者总能用他们的"公式"计算出一个结果
I don't know you do it
不知道具体是怎么操作的
I mean it's all really mystery to me
这对我来说一直是个谜
My temptation would almost tell the pollster the opposite of what I think
我充其量只是向调查者说出违心的想法
It just sort of ear-test to me there's no supposition to know how the elections gonna come out before it happens
我总觉得这种不正式的调查无法在大选真正结束前预测出其结果
Right, The comment was in 1932 election telephone polling showing Hoover beating F.D.R was quite the opposite
对，他说1932年大选中电话调查结果显示胡佛将会击败罗斯福，但结果相反
Well pollsters have made a lot of advances since then but they still get beat sometime
现在的调查者应该比那时进步多了，不过有时他们还是会出错
It doesn't always turn out the way they think
有时结果并不如他们所愿
And the technology is changing as we just brought that up and attitudes towards about polling changed
调查的手段在逐渐发展但人们对民调的态度也在改变

视频及简介

本课程结合大量地图，探索了美国总统大选（包括过去和现在）中的地理学，并且对仅仅简单把美国分为红州（共和党）和蓝州（民主党）这一说法提出挑战。现实中，美国社会两党的情况，远比这种简单的两分法要复杂。