听力文本

Another some hands up? yes!
还有要举手提问的吗？请问！
Well, ok, the question is we saw in 1924 Robert LaFollette formed a strong third party bid
好的，他的问题是1924年拉福莱特建立了第3个政党与两党抗衡
Now there were other one we'll see this 1948, the democrats split actually in three
这种情况也出现在1948年，这一年民主党实际上分为三派
the Dixiecrat split with Strom Thurmond after Harry Truman integrated the arm forces
一派是南方民主党人，以瑟蒙德为候选人，这发生在杜鲁门废除军队种族隔离后
and there was Wallace who had been former vice president who run to the left of Truman
还有华里士，他是前任副总统，也另起炉灶与杜鲁门竞争
Which was why everyone thought Truman was gonna lose
因此人们都认为杜鲁门输定了
Why the newspaper printed out headlines "Dewey wins the election". Truman won
连报纸头条都写的是杜威（共和党候选人）赢得了大选。但最终杜鲁门赢了
The Dixiecrats took a number of southern states
南方民主党人在赢取了一些南方的州
Wallace didn't play very well anywhere but there were others 1992 would be a good case
华里士则支持率普遍很低，但还有其他例子如1992年的大选
We'll see maps of that later on
我们以后会看到92年的地图
When Ross Perot ran as sort of a maverick independent took a lot of votes from, probably from both parties
罗斯佩罗以独立竞选人的身份参选，从两党支持者手中抢走不少选票
Maybe more from the republicans and that helped Bill Clinton ran
可能更多地抢走了共和党的选票，并在种程度上帮助克林顿赢得此次大选。
and there were minor ones, Ralph Nader ran the 2000 may have been the deciding factor
也有一些较没影响力的独立竞选人，纳德在2000年的竞选中却起了决定性作用

He didn't get that many votes
虽然他没有得到很多支持
But in places like Florida where the margin was really thin
但在佛罗里达州这样的选区，两党差距非常小的情况下
If those Nader voter would vote for Gore would have gone the other way
如果投给纳德的人把票投给戈尔，那获胜的也许就不是布什了
John Anderson ran in 1980 that affected the election but there've been a number of third party candidates have really effect
约翰安德森参加1980年的大选，也对选情间接造成了影响，但也有一些真正有影响力的第三方总统竞选人
The only one who really have a chance of winning think was Theodore Roosevelt in 1912
我认为唯一有实力获胜的第三方候选人是1912年参选的西奥多罗斯福
With his Progressive party won California, won a lot of the states
他带领他创立的进步党赢取了加州等多个选区
So that was a possibility
所以他是有可能获胜的
The others I don't think who ever have possibility winning
其他第三方竞选者我认为根本没有胜算
and I don't know if the candidate figure that or if they want to spoil it. who knows. I mean I can't see that
不知道他们是没有这个自知之明还是他们想在大选中搞破坏。谁知道呢。我们都不知道他们参选的初衷
Yes, ok the question is the population density how much is that have to do with it
好的，他的问题是人口密度对大选结果的影响
It has a lot to do with it
影响是很大的

视频及简介

本课程结合大量地图，探索了美国总统大选（包括过去和现在）中的地理学，并且对仅仅简单把美国分为红州（共和党）和蓝州（民主党）这一说法提出挑战。现实中，美国社会两党的情况，远比这种简单的两分法要复杂。