听力文本
note there's a zone going from south-western Pennsylvania through West Virginia, particularly in the coal mining areas
看这个(红色）区域 从宾夕法尼亚西南部 延伸到西弗吉尼亚地区 尤其是煤矿产区
this is the traditionally Democratic voting part of West Virginia
过去这里一向是西弗吉尼亚倾向民主党的地区
that's where you see the biggest shift
如今却大幅地转向支持共和党
the coal mining counties of Kentucky
还有肯塔基州的产煤县
almost all of Tennessee, northern Alabama, virtually the entire state of Arkansas
几乎整个田纳西州 阿拉巴马州西部 以及几乎整个阿肯色州（都泛红）
although it's interesting
有趣的是
the Wal-Mart headquarters area up here stayed the same
沃尔玛总部所在地的支持率几乎保持不变
these south-eastern counties of Oklahoma, this was the Democratic part of the state
俄克拉荷马东南部的县曾是民主党的支持区域
recently as 1988 Dukakis won all those counties
1988年杜卡基斯在此大获全胜
and now they have all shifted in the Republican direction
然而现在他们都转而向共和党靠拢

seems like Dukakis was hardly the kind of candidate who had appealed to people
作为总统候选人 杜卡基斯 对于俄克拉荷马东南部的选民 不像是一个很具吸引力的选择
but he had more appeal than Barack Obama
但他的确比奥巴马吸引了更多选票
that we can pretty much categorically say
我想这是毫无疑问的
ok it's a question about having to do with the the fact that the switch of more affluent highly educated voters to the Democratic Party has certain economic rationale
他的问题是关于高学历高收入选民更多地倾向民主党 与经济因素有关
certainly in a lot of counties with high foreclosure rate places like San Joaquin County, we see a real strong blue shift
在一些止赎率较高的县 如圣华金县 大幅度转向民主党
we certainly see that
很明显
well Charlotte North Carolina would be an interesting case
还有北卡的夏洛特也是个有趣的例子
that's now the second largest financial center in the country after New York
它现在已成为全美第二大金融中心 仅次于纽约
and it has a very major blue shift here
该地区也大比例向蓝营靠拢
yeah if you look at really economically distressed areas like western Pennsylvania
当然如果我们反观一些正在遭受经济衰落的地区 如宾夕法尼亚西部
centers of heavy industry there you don't see it
过去的重工业中心 则没有这种趋势
there if anything you see a little bit of a red shift
甚至会看到向红营偏转的趋势
so we got to look at the cultural factors and economic factors
所以我们发现文化因素和经济因素
all these things are coming into play
的确都对选情起着一定影响
yeah I'm always X of giving explanations
所以我不能对数据进行详细的解释
all I can really do is point out map correlations
我能做的只是分析图中的各种联系
I'll leave it to statisticians
我想处理数据是统计学家的工作
who can run their regression analyses to give us harder numbers on those sort of things
他们通过回归分析等工具为我们提供更精准的数据
well that's interesting
很有趣的问题
the question is this the most fundamentalist?
红色区域是否聚集了大部分正统基督信徒
it is... one thing we can say that is an area with very high percentage of Southern Baptist and low percentage of African Americans
某个程度上 的确在这个地区 美南浸信教徒的比例很高 而且黑人的比例很低
it's the northern edge of that Southern Baptist zone
是美南浸信会北部的边缘地带
although again Virginia and North Carolina are exceptions
弗吉尼亚和北卡在这儿是例外
so it's the interior southern Baptist without any African Americans
美南浸信会信区的中间地带则几乎没有任何黑人
that's more than anything else that what it shows
这些细节图中没法看出来
Louisiana is somewhat interesting
路易安娜的情况很有趣
it has a very high percentage of African Americans
那里黑人居民的比例很高
although if we have time I'll show you a map of Louisiana
如果我们时间充裕 我会给你们看一幅路易安娜的地图
it's a good correlation of the counties with low African American populations doing much more of this red shift
你们会看见黑人人口越少的县 越倾向于转向支持共和党
plus a lot of African Americans left Louisiana after Katrina haven't come back
而且很多因卡特琳娜飓风而迫离 路易安娜州的黑人都没再回来
so that's something to note
这也许导致了他们像红偏转
we can look at some, give more detail when you look at some of the state maps
我们以后看单个州的地图时会讲到更多细节

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。