听力文本

And he says yeah, well, it's for the wealthier culture issues as well too that make the difference, otherwise I don't think we can really know
这不能简单又归因于这些富裕地区的文化差异导致了这种现象，因此我认为事实并不像我们想的那么简单
Individuals are voting for all kinds of reasons
每个投票者的选择都有其原因
We can sort of try to aggregate those statistics
而我们看到的只是他们行为的集合
but yeah, that's a real central paradox perhaps, at least issue, something to think about
这显得很矛盾，很值得我们思考
And again,I'd really like to hear from the class sort of views you have on that
我很愿意听你们的意见对这个问题的看法
Thanks, I know there were some other hands up. yes ?
我看到还有人举手。请提问？
Yes how reliable are the polls?
民意调查的可信程度如何?
Yes, that's a great question
这个问题问得好
How reliable are polls overall
总体而言民调有多可信?
How reliable is these specific polls
某个特定的民调有多可信?
Certainly in the current election, you got to take into account what is somebody called Bradley effect
其实在现代的大选中你应该考虑布莱德利效应
After Tom Bradley L.A. Mayor ran for California
布莱德利曾以洛杉矶市长的身份竞选加州州长（他是黑人）
African-American polls show that he is winning and he lost
一份由黑人进行的民意调查显示他本应赢得选举但他输了
So the Bradley effect will tell you that people will say to pollsters
所以布莱德利效应指的是人们告诉民意调查者
That they're going to vote for a African-American candidate
他们会把票投给非洲裔候选人
A certain percentage of them will go to the voting booth and won't do it
但相当一部分受访者到达投票点时并没有这么做
So that's specific to this election, in elections in general
所以今年奥巴马可能也有这种情况，这种现象是有普遍性的
Sometimes the polls are dead on
有时候民意调查尤为精准

Sometimes they are really wrong
有时候却误导大家
They don't always call it
它无法总是给人正确的指引
I mentioned the 1948 election where the polls show that Dewey was gonna crash Truman and Truman won
我提到过在1948年的大选中民调显示杜威在大选中将战胜杜鲁门，最后杜鲁门却获胜了
And there're been some more recent cases of confounding of polls
近来类似的不准确的民调出现的例子还有很多
I'm actually really sort of surprise the polls work as well as they do
我一直很好奇民意调查怎么能发挥如此强大的作用
It seems to me a lot of people would say none of your business who am I voting for
我总觉得很多人接受调查时会说我支持的是谁与你无关
Some people do say none of your business
有时即使被访者说与你无关
but the pollster sort of figure it out who those people would be
但调查者总能将他们归为某方的支持者
and put it in their equations to come up with the poll
并根据他们的公式计算出民调结果
It's been very interesting what's happening now, I am checking the polls all the time
现在的选情也很有趣，我一直在关注民意调查

视频及简介

本课程结合大量地图，探索了美国总统大选（包括过去和现在）中的地理学，并且对仅仅简单把美国分为红州（共和党）和蓝州（民主党）这一说法提出挑战。现实中，美国社会两党的情况，远比这种简单的两分法要复杂。