听力文本

yes
请提问
the question has to do with the gains that Obama made in polling data after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the general financial meltdown
他的问题是奥巴马的支持率 从民调数据来看 在雷曼兄弟破产以后以及大规模金融危机爆发后 有所上升
basically the polls had shown the two candidates running neck and neck for a while
最初民调的结果显示两个人在相当一段时间里是不相上下的
going up and down
一时上升一时下降
Obama had a spike with his tour in Europe his popularity went up
奥巴马支持率在他出访欧洲后有所上升
he got a little spike after the Democratic Convention
在民主党全国代表大会召开后轻微上升
McCain got a very substantial spike after the Republican Convention
麦凯的支持率则在共和党大会后上升了不少
particularly after Sarah Palin' speech
尤其是在萨拉佩林进行了她的演讲后
a lot of Evangelicals very conservative Evangelicals were pretty soft on McCain
许多保守的福音派新教信徒都疯狂地支持麦凯恩
and her nomination did increase that vote
佩林被提名副总统候选人后也有上升

pollster, people who look at the polling data come up with different conclusions
不同的观察者看到民调数据会得出不同的结论
I read Democratic pundits who say
有个民主党内的权威人士曾说
actually the pickup began a few days before Lehman Brothers collapsed
民主党的支持率是从雷曼兄弟破产几天前就开始上升的
they would attribute it to Sarah Palin's interview with Katie Couric
他们认为这得益于佩林在凯蒂库里克访谈中的失误
again I don't know the statistics well enough to make informed comments on that
不过我对这些具体数据并不了解 所以没法作出权威的评论
certainly I think you're right though that the financial collapse helped Barack Obama very much
我想你的看法是有道理的 金融危机的出现 的确助了奥巴马一臂之力
if it hadn't happened it would have been a close election
没有金融危机 这届大选的结果一定非常接近
I think we could pretty much safely say which could have gone either way
我想我们可以很确定的说 没有金融危机两方都可能获胜
but still one thing to try to look at is how much did the voting shift in areas that were more affected by the financial collapse
不过一个值得研究的问题是 哪些地区的选举倾向受金融危机的影响更多
I haven't been able to find maps to really tease that out
我还没有找过这方面的地图进行分析
yes but it's a very very important question
这的确是一个很准重要的问题

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。