听力文本

we have about half an hour or so
我们大概还有半个小时下课
I could go through...
我可以继续讲各县选情
I have all the other states
我有所有州的地图
if anyone wants to see any particular states we can
如果你们很想看哪个州的情况 我可以给你们讲
but I just like to open it up to questions or comments that any of you might have
但我想留时间给你们自由讨论 或者做一些补充评论
yes
请提问
ok the question has to do with the big shift among minority voters and youth voters towards Obama
他的问题是关于 少数人种选民和年轻选民倾向奥巴马的问题
and asking for historical comparison to see how sustainable that would be
他问与历史上的选举来看 这种变化是不是持续发生的

certainly for the youth vote, there was a big shift in the Democratic direction in the late 1960s and the early 1970s
毋庸置疑 年轻选民开始大量转向支持民主党 是在20世纪60年代末70年代初开始的
the McGovern campaign depended very heavily on the youth voter
当时麦戈文阵营就非常依赖年轻选民的选票
of course that was a campaign that netted one state
而且最后依靠他们的选票仅获得了一个州
Massachusetts and the District of Columbia
就是马萨诸塞州 还有哥伦比亚特区
when we did see as we brought up before in the 1980s the youth vote really shifting in the Republican direction
我们从之前的课中了解到 80年代年轻选民又开始向民主党靠拢
quite substantially in the 1980s
这段时间出现了明显变化
so that would suggest it's going to seesaw
可见这种变化是摇摆不定的
now there's a lot of debate on whether or not people become more conservative as they age
现在很多人在讨论是不是人会随着年龄的增长而变得保守
that's an old adage
人们过去总是这么认为
the evidence is a bit uncertain though
但并没有明确的证据证明这个观点
it's not certainly a uniform predictable pattern
因为人们的观念与年龄的关系不是绝对的
it often seems to happen
通常情况下他们会变保守
but sometimes the elderly can switch in...towards more liberal voting
但也有的时候老人会倾向于支持更自由的一边
if they think that for example social security is impaired
例如如果他们认为社会安全体系受到了损害
that has happened in some recent elections
这种情况在近几次大选出现过

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。