听力文本
OK I do want to have some time for discussion
好了 我想要留一些时间来给你们讨论
I have a few other state maps we can look at if anyone has a state they really want to see
我还有一些其他州的地图 如果有哪个州你是特别想了解的
you can ask I don't have them all but I have a couple others
可以要求我讲 我还准备了一些 但不是所有州都有
but I'm just curious of come as you may have yes
但我很好奇...有问题了 请问
that's a great question
这是一个很好的问题
how will you do with population dynamics
如何考虑人口流动在选举中的影响
maybe I can go back to my population
我可以回到那幅人口增加的图
actually it's my... I can find it here
让我找一找
change in population where are people going
人口的变化和人口流向
well certainly California is still a big magnet
很明显加州仍然是吸引人口的胜地

a lot of the California counties don't show up on the percentage growth rate
加州的县没有出现在人口增长率的前几名
because a lot of them already have so many people
因为很多县的人口基数本来就很大了
if you look at it in absolute number so we would have counties like San Bernardino would be in the fastest growing counties
如果只看人口增长的绝对人数 那么想圣贝纳迪诺这样的县 应该算是人口增长最快的县了
in just the terms of how many people they've added
如果只考虑他们多了多少人的话
basically you have this certain sort of thriving suburban zones
同时你还看到一些崛起中的郊区地带
mostly in the Sun Belt but not entirely
大部分分布在南部各州 但也不尽然
that area is around Minneapolis and Saint Paul look how they have grown
例如明尼阿波利斯和圣保罗附近 你看到人口的迅速增长
also university towns often are population growth magnets Dane County of Madison, Wisconsin
还有大学城也是吸引人口的大磁场 如威斯康辛 麦迪逊所在的戴恩县
you can see how it's grown
人口增长明显
you can see Detroit huge decline
你还会看到底特律人口大幅下降
but Oakland County Washtenaw County these others they've seen corresponding growth
但奥克兰县 沃什特瑙县 则有相应的人口增长
well Washtenaw that's where Ann Arbor is has long been Democratic
沃什特瑙县是安亚伯市所在地 一直以来都支持民主党
Oakland County relatively weldable county has recently shifted from the Republican to the Democratic side
一个立场较为摇摆的县 近几届也从共和党阵营转而投入民主党的怀抱
but not by very much
虽然优势不明显
but that's what the real sort of battle is going to be
可见红蓝之间的激烈斗争
and you can see even in South Dakota you have Sioux Falls really gaining in population has suburbs now
在南达科他地区你也能看到苏瀑地区的人口也在上升 包括郊区
how are these areas going to go so I think that's really key
这些地区倾向哪个阵营是大选中的关键
some sociologist of religion have said that
一些研究地区变化的社会学家称
in these really fast growing suburbs we get these instant towns
在这些快速增长的郊区 出现了迅速崛起的城镇
and people don't know their neighbors
人们与邻居不相往来
there often isn't very good very well developed infrastructure
通常这些地区也没有建设完善的基础设施
the big megachurches move in and sort of fill that social role
大教堂在这些地区迅速建成 充当起它本应由的社会角色
and that correlates with highly Republican voting patterns
这些地区常常有着较高的共和党支持率
that may be changing we'll see what this election brings
但情况也在发生变化 这次大选结果如何即将揭晓
but I suspect that a lot of these suburban counties that had been pretty heavily Republican are going to be switching
但我认为 这些快速发展的郊县 虽然曾非常倾向共和党 但现在正在向民主党靠拢
but in some parts of the country more than others
但在美国的其他地方
actually looking at this I'm surprised how conservative a lot of these Minneapolis suburbs are
它们的情况让我感到惊讶 明尼阿普利斯的城郊地区很多都非常保守
I just find Minneapolis is a lot like San Francisco
我一直觉得明尼阿普利斯很像三藩市
in the city yes but you get in the suburbs no
城市里的确很像 但它们的城郊却非常不同

视频及简介
这一集讲述了1972-2004年总统大选的历史与过程,介绍了近几届以来红蓝阵营的地理分布变化以及变化原因，对1972-2000年的总统选举进行了简略解释并非常详细地分析了2004年大选，对于全美大部分州的选情都进行了详尽的分析，可以阐述了08年大选前民调的趋势，可以从中瞥见近几年美国总统选举的发展变化。