听力文本

should we look at a few states
我们来具体看几个州的选情
I got all the states here
我有所有州的选情地图
I'm not gonna try to go through them one by one
但我不会每个都讲
what I'll do is talk about a few of them
我会先挑几个来讲解
and then ask if you want to see any others or we just want to have general discussion
再问问你们有哪些其他想了解的州 或者我们直接进入讨论环节
certainly California we can see the big change was southern California
对比中看到 加州南部发生了明显的变化
really only Orange County now
只剩橙县仍然
Republican conservative bastion
坚守在保守的共和党阵营
remaining as such Riverside, San Bernardino
其余转蓝的 河畔县 圣布纳迪诺县
these are real foreclosure zones
都是由于楼市危机
very hard hit by the housing crisis
抵押品赎回权丧失严重的地区
and a major switch there
这里发生了很大的转变

I was surprised to see San Diego switching in this direction
我对圣地亚哥转向民主党阵营感到惊讶
again the northern San Joaquin area, San Joaquin County, Stanislaus County, that's Modesto, Merced, shifting
在圣华金地区北部 圣华金县 斯坦尼斯劳斯县 莫德斯托市所在的美熹县 都在转蓝
some rural counties like Trinity, very small population
这里的农村地区如赤尼迪 人口非常少
here's Butte County with Chico State
这是加州州立大学所在的布特县
many thousands of college students there
聚集了成千上万的大学生
this is Nevada County, Grass Valley area, hadn't gone Democratic since 1964 I believe
这是内华达县 格拉斯瓦利地区 1964年以后就没选过民主党
it's been changing in a minute rural, sort of our natural amenity zone
是农村地区的选票发生了变化 因为这些地方自然风景宜人
people have moved to that area and that has changed the voting patterns there as well
很多人因此移入定居 导致了该地区投票倾向的变化
certainly we can see the entire Bay Area as a very dark blue
显而易见 整个旧金山湾区是一片深蓝
you could see that better on the map on my computer screen
你们看我电脑上的地图颜色会区分地更明显
there're still very red zones of California, Modoc Lassen County, up in the Great Basin
加州也仍然有深红的区域 如默多克所在的雷森县 以及靠近大盆地地区的县
it's still solidly Republican
仍然极度支持共和党
as would be the southern San Joaquin although there was a big blue shift here, shift in the Democratic direction
在圣华金南部地区也是如此 虽然他们很大程度上已向蓝偏转 向民主党靠拢
not enough to change the...
但总体上仍是倾向共和党
so Mono County here Alpine County which had been Democratic before
所以这里的莫诺县阿尔派县现在都转而支持民主党
very small populations
人口数量非常小
a number of people who've moved there for the natural amenities, mountain climbers
但有不少人移居到这 因为这里自然环境优雅 吸引了登山者
it's a real natural beauty zone, that's attracted people. so that...
这里的自然风光的确很吸引人 所以...
and I think 2004 may have been...
我记得04年（它们好像还是泛红的）
maybe 2000 but they certainly were Republican back in the days when they were predominantly ranching counties as they have been
又或者是2000年 总之以前它们的确是倾向共和党的 在它们还是主要以牧场经济为生的年代 它们的确是倾向共和党
but when you have such a small population base
但考虑到该地区人口基数小
it's not hard to switch it
要转变它的选情不难

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。