听力文本

Medium Household Income, I was just going to point out that
家庭平均收入 我想说的是
this area that had shifted red through West Virginia part of Kentucky, much of Tennessee, Arkansas and Oklahoma thus tend to be a poor area
那些像共和党靠拢的地区 从西弗吉尼亚 到肯塔基部分地区 田纳西 阿肯色 俄克拉荷马大部分地区 都是较为贫穷的区域
but there are exceptions
不过也有一些例外
again you can see the area Benton County where Wal-Mart's headquarters there you can see the greater Nashville area
我们又看到了本顿县 沃尔玛总部的所在地以及大纳什维尔大城区
so it's not a perfect correlation by any means
所以家庭收入和选情并不完全相关
here's a similar map that chose very different patterns
这又是一幅展示变化的地图 但非常不同
so here we compare Bill Clinton's election in 1996 his second to Barack Obama's
这幅图展示的是1996年克林顿连任那届大选和08年奥巴马这届的选票变化
just looking at counties and how they shifted
看看比较之下各个县的变化
are they shifting more in the Democratic direction or more in the Republican direction
12年后它们是更倾向民主党还是更倾向共和党?
a completely different map
这和刚才的地图完全不同
here we see a sloth of red to most of the country
这幅图中全美大部分地区都被红色覆盖
basically what we're seeing here is the erosion of support for the Democratic candidate in rural counties
我们从这两年的对比中看见的是民主党候选人在农村地区流失了大量支持

a relatively recent phenomenon
这种变化是近几年才开始的
what's been going on for a while but we've seen in the last 12 years a real shift here
已经持续了一段时间 从12年的对比来看变化已经非常明显
many counties and again
有很多县
boy, Arkansas of course Bill Clinton's home state
尤其是在阿肯色 克林顿的家乡几乎全红
but look at Oklahoma, we can see Oklahoma City staying relatively neutral, Tulsa relatively neutral
在俄克拉荷马州 我们看到俄克拉荷马城选情几乎没变 塔尔萨也几乎没变
but all the rest of those Oklahoma counties shifting away from Bill Clinton to...compared to Barack Obama's election
但俄克拉荷马其余的县 在克林顿时期对民主党的支持都比奥巴马时期要多
we can see Texas almost all the counties except Dallas and some of the suburban counties, Austin some of its suburban areas, actually even Houston as well
在德克萨斯 几乎所有县都转红了 除了达拉斯和一些城郊的县 以及奥斯丁和它的城郊地区 还有休斯顿地区
so it was the Republicans' first start gaining in the south in the 1960s they started gaining in the cities
共和党从20世纪60年代开始逐渐获得南部的支持 它们开始获得城市的支持
that's really clearly true in Texas
是从德克萨斯的
it was Dallas and Houston where the Republicans made their inroads in the what had been a solid Democratic voting state from the old political system
达拉斯和休斯顿开始的 共和党人以这里为据点 逐步蚕食过去坚不可摧的民主党南部阵地 瓦解传统的政治体制
now as it evolves we found that the rural counties pretty much abandoned the Democrats unless there are heavily Hispanic rural counties down here
随着这种形势的发展 我们发现现在很多农村县都抛弃了对民主党的拥护 除非这些农村地区是以葡西裔为主
otherwise the rural areas have gone Republican
其余的农村地区都转而支持共和党
and their urban areas and even some of the suburban areas going in the Democratic direction
而在城市区域 甚至在一些城郊地区有出现了倾向民主党的情况
now these counties here are still heavily Republican voting but they edged a little bit more in that direction
现在这些县虽然还是非常支持共和党 但已有部分支持率流失到了蓝色阵营
you can see California having gone
例如加州就已经完全转向了蓝营
California was a pretty reliably Republican voting state in the 1980s
在80年代加州是共和党坚实可靠的票仓
it started shifting really in the 1990s
但它在90年代开始向民主党靠拢
and now the shift is quite deep with California giving over 60% of its vote for Obama
现在这种转变已经非常巨大 奥巴马以超过60%的支持率赢下加州
so here you can see the coastal counties are particularly making that real switch
图中可见是沿海县的选情变化 导致了加州整体选情的大幅变化
we can see that in many urban and suburban areas
我们看到很多城市和城郊（在转蓝）
you can see Seattle had been Democratic voting but it's much more so now
过去西雅图就是支持民主党的 现在它的支持率更高的
same with Portland, Multnomah County there
穆尔特诺莫县的波特兰市也是如此

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。