听力文本
yes
请提问
the question has to do with the fact that we have private voting it's in secret
他的问题是选举过程中 投票人的信息是保密的
but yes we have all these data telling us the people of certain ages and educational levels vote in a certain way
但我们却总能得到关于某年龄层或某学历人群投票情况的数据统计
most of this comes from exit-polling
这些结果多来自"选后民调"
where pollsters go and poll people as they're leaving the voting booth
调查者们在投票人离开投票箱时对他们进行调查
there are something called the National Election Study, I believe it's called
有一个叫做"国家选举研究"的计划 名字我应该没记错
which is a very substantial statistical study done after every election
这是一个很大型的数据调查研究计划 在每次大选后进行
to try to tease out these demographic patterns
致力于跟踪各种人群的投票倾向
I don't know what this...
我对这个了解的不多

again I'm not a statistician so I don't know what the margin of error would be and how good those are
毕竟我不是统计学家 我不清楚怎样的误差幅度才算合理以及结果到底有多可信
certainly we have problems to deal with
他们必须要解决一些影响准确性的问题
some people are going to answer those questions, others aren't
例如有些人愿意回答问题 有些人不愿意
some may not answer them honestly
有些人也许回答的不诚实
we know from...we know that the actual pre-election polling was very accurate this time
我们知道这次大选中选前的民调是非常准确的
the Bradley effect that people thought might come into play, didn't
所谓的布莱德利效应很多人认为很可能会出现 实际上并没有出现
the effect that people telling pollsters
该效应是指受访者告诉民调人员
that they were going to vote for an African American candidate and then they go into the voting booth they don't do it
他们会支持一位黑人候选人 但常常到了真正投票的时候 他们会改变主意
as evidently happened at one time in the California gubernatorial race
这种情况曾出现在布莱德利竞选加州州长的时候
that didn't happen this time
但这次没有发生
so those polls are pretty good
可见民调是非常准确的
but pollsters in the National Election Studies in this exit-polling
但国家选举研究中进行选后调查的民调人员
they have to take into account that certain people are not gonna answer
需要考虑到那些不回答问题的人
and they're gonna have to try to figure out
剔除他们对结果精确性的影响
algorithms to figure out how those people would've voted
通过一些算法来计算 这些人究竟会如何投票
and I don't think there's any way to go back after the fact and test to see how accurate those were
但我想我们没有办法在大选后来检验这些选后调查的精确性
we can test pre-election polling the election test it
大选前的民调我们可以通过选情来检验精确性
but we can't test the post-election polling
而选后的民调则无法对证
so I really don't know
所以我也不确定
I just have to rely on the works of others and hoped that they're relatively accurate
我们只能更多地对比其他调查结果 希望它们统计的结果是相对准确的
but I can't vouch for it really
但我无法保证它的精确性
if anyone...I know some people here know more about polling than I do
如果你们...我知道在座有人比我更了解民调的细节
if anyone does please help us answer that question
有人愿意为我们解答这个问题吗?
ok I'll move on to some other issues
好 那我们继续讨论别的问题

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。