听力文本
I think the Republican strategists would be concerned
我想共和党的战略家会感到担忧
when they look at places like greater Atlanta undergoing this sort of substantial shift in the Democratic direction
因为大西洋州区各州的民主党支持率出现了大幅度增长
and in Florida again it's something we talked about in the course website
在佛罗里达州 之前我们在课程网站上已经讨论过了
Tampa, Hillsborough County and neighboring areas
在希尔斯伯勒县的坦帕市及其周边地区
big cities had gone for Bush went for Obama this time
过去支持布什的大城市都转而支持奥巴马
and I thought ok there's a real change here but in the long run over the last 12 not much of a change
我想这里的选情的确发生了很多变化 但从更长的时间段来看 与12年前的选情相比却几乎没变
all the change has been is Orlando
唯一变化很大的是奥兰多
Orange County, Osceola County to the south of it
在它以南的橙县 奥西奥拉县
this is an area that had been reliably Republican voting now Democratic voting
过去曾是忠实的共和党阵地 现在变成了民主党阵地
so that's been a boom area
这是一个发展迅猛的地区

lots of people moving in and it really changed the voting pattern in central Florida so that really is the big story
很多人移居到这里 导致佛州中部的选举倾向发生了改变 这的确是一个很大的变化
I think why Florida is now at least for this election we'll see in the Democratic camp
我想这也是佛州 至少在这场大选中倾向民主党的重要原因
Vermont where is reliably Democratic voting now
佛蒙特州现在是可靠的民主党支持州
heavily Democratic voting
民主党支持率非常高
New Hampshire had been a swing state
过去新罕布什尔是个摇摆州
it has at least for the XX shifted out of that category
但现在它已经稳定地倾向民主党
we just pause for a drinking see if anyone has any questions or comments
让我停下喝口水 有没人有什么问题或者评论?
yes
请提问
the county around Cincinati is Hamilton
辛辛那提所在的县汉密尔顿县
Hamilton county
没错是汉密尔顿县
it is pretty strongly blue this time but I don't see it reflected the shift
在这次大选中极为倾向民主党 但好像这幅图中没有反应出这个转变
yes you can see it is blue here
图中你可以看到它是蓝色的
it's not as blue as some of the other counties
但它的蓝色没它附近的县那么深
actually I was gonna say that's Franklin
这个较深的是富兰克林
yes that is Franklin County
没错 是富兰克林县
that's Columbus
哥伦布市坐落于此
Indianapolis Columba show up with more of a blue shift
印第安纳波利斯 和哥伦布表现出向蓝偏转的幅度较为明显
Hamilton County had voted for Bush in both 2000 and 2004 and voted for Barack Obama this time
汉密尔顿县过去是支持布什的 在2000年和04年的大选都是 而这次却转而支持奥巴马
which is one of the keys to Obama's victory in Ohio
这对奥巴马在俄亥俄取得胜利非常关键
which is a fairly narrow victory
他在俄亥俄的获胜优势非常微弱
and again I would have suspected maybe a little bit more of a change there as well
所以我也觉得汉密尔顿县的变化应该比图中反应的更大才对

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。