听力文本

Welcome again on this election eve 2008 to the geography of US presidential elections. Thank you for coming
欢迎在2008的大选之夜来继续我们美国总统大选地理学的课程，感谢在座各位的到来
and thanks as well to those who may be listening to this lecture on Itunes University
同时也感谢那些通过Itunes U收看这门课的观众
What I want to do today is very quickly go through recent presidential election history
今天我想快速地带你们浏览一遍近几次大选的选情
so that we can have time to focus on the 2004 election
剩下的时间用来着重讲04年的大选
It really get down in some details county level analysis for a number of different states
深入分析各州较为细微的统计数据
The overall point I want to make for this historical section is that the Democratic party faced a real challenge
总结来说，在这段时期的大选中民主党面临着严峻的挑战
A geographical challenge after the disaster election for the Democrats in 1972
民主党在1972年灾难性的大选后失去了其地理阵地
When they were reduced to Massachusetts and the District of Columbia
那场大选中，民主党仅赢得了马萨诸塞和哥伦比亚特区

If you remember before 1964, it's in this great transition or transformation that had been heated up previously
你也许还记得在1964年前，民主党在南方的势力就向着共和党逐渐过渡
but came in full swing in 1964, when the Democrats lost the Deep South entirely and the Republicans gained it
直到在64年的大选中民主党完全失去了南方这个坚固的大本营，相反，共和党在南方得势
so here is the Democratic Party which had relied so heavily on a solid base in the south, now has lost that geographical region
南方曾经是民主党大选中依赖至深的坚固阵地，而今对这个地理区域完全失守
and at the same time the Democrats were facing another problem with the declining cities
同时，民主党人还面临着城市衰落所带来的问题
the industrial cities of the North-east and Mid-west which had been another geographical strength for the Democratic Party
东北部和中西部的工业城市也曾在地理上充当民主党的坚固票仓
Cities were beginning to decline, suburbs were growing rapidly
但此时城市初现衰落迹象郊区迅速兴起
and the suburbs were the area where the Republicans had the greater strength
而在城郊区域，共和党恰好把握着更大优势
and even mining areas were in decline as mining was mechanized
传统矿区受到机械化的冲击也开始没落
so the question becomes how are the Democrats going to address this crisis
因此民主党的问题是如何度过这次危机

视频及简介

这一集讲述了1972-2004年总统大选的历史与过程,介绍了近几届以来红蓝阵营的地理分布变化以及变化原因，对1972-2000年的总统选举进行了简略解释并非常详细地分析了2004年大选，对于全美大部分州的选情都进行了详尽的分析，可以阐述了08年大选前民调的趋势，可以从中瞥见近几年美国总统选举的发展变化。