听力文本

what I want to do today is show you a lot of maps as always before
今天我要给你们看很多地图 和往常一样
I show maps I'm gonna show some graphs to get out some of the non-geographical aspects of change in this election
配合图表数据一起 展示给你们看 来研究这场大选中除了地理方面的一些其他变化
and at anytime if anyone has questions or comments
欢迎你们随时提问或发表评论
please feel free to interrupt me to talk about those
不用介意打断我 随时提问
start that with a few from Andrew Gelman
我们从格尔曼绘制的一些图表开始
it's a very interesting site, name after his book Red State Blue State Rich State Poor State
它们均来自一个有意思的网站 是以格尔曼的一本书《红色州蓝色州富裕州贫穷州》命名的
richer people continue to lean Republicans so we are showing the Republican vote share 30% 40% 50% 60% you can see on the left
富人仍然倾向支持共和党 我们看到左边显示的是富人对共和党的支持率30%40%50%60%
and then income up to only $150,000 in the Bay Area that doesn't seem particularly wealthy
虽然年收入150,000美金在旧金山湾区是不算特别富裕
but for most of the country it's a healthy income
但在全国大部分地区 已经算是丰厚的收入了

and then we're comparing the 2008 elections with the 2000 and the 2004
图中是2008年的选情 与00年和04年的比较
so you can certainly see poor people voting very heavily for the Democratic Party
你会发现在穷人选民当中 民主党享有极高的支持率
and then as you get wealthier and wealthier as an increase in Republican voting although not as pronounced as in earlier years
然而在收入越高的人群中 对共和党的支持率也随着增高 虽然在08年这一规律已不如前两届显着
but then Gelman goes and looks at even higher incomes and notes that in 2008 as opposed to 2004
格尔曼对收入更高的人作了进一步统计后发现 与2004年相反 2008年
the share of Republican voting is declining as you get into these higher incomes
共和党的支持率随工资增高而减少
and that is unusual and quite distinctive in this election
这是这次大选中较为不同寻常的地方
I wish it could have taken that out much farther
希望我们可以对这个问题更深入的讨论
we discussed on the website a little bit
我们在网页上讨论过这个问题
article on the Wall Street Journal claiming that the super-wealthy those making 30 million or so are tending to vote for Obama
华尔街日报甚至有文章称 美国的巨富阶层 即资产3000万美金左右的人更倾向于支持奥巴马
whereas the merely wealthy those of a million to 10 million voting for McCain
而那些"一般富"的阶层资产在百万到千万之间的则倾向麦凯恩
a lot of people think its sample size wasn't large enough
不过很多人认为该统计的样本数量不够
you can't have good data on that
因为相关信息较难获取

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。