听力文本

We do have some other western states to look at, oh, oh yes I'm sorry, one thing I wanted to mention about California
我们还要看下西部其他州的情况，噢，对了，抱歉，还有一个关于加州要补充的是
If you look at the Bay Area, so if you could go the greater Bay Area, Sacramento voting for Kerry but just barely
在旧金山湾区域，尤其是泛旧金山湾区域，除了圣克拉蒙特略微倾向克里
Then you go down to San Joaquin County Stockton Modesto in Stanislaus County Merced County voting for George Bush
你会发现斯托克顿市所在的在圣华金县、莫德斯托市所在的斯坦尼斯洛斯县和默塞德县都支持乔治布什
That's sort of the outer suburban fringe lots of growth there
这属于城郊的外围区域发展极为迅速
I just want to mention that's the foreclosure capital
请你们注意这些地区的终止赎回现象
This is actually from last, from a year ago, so this is the early foreclosure boom if you will
终止赎回权激增是从前几年开始的，这是终止赎回权激增的分布图
And you can see San Bernardino County, Riverside County, San Diego County and then you can see that a belt there as well
你看到包括圣部那地诺县，河畔县，圣地亚哥县的整个带状地区均情况严重

What you basically see here is a lot of fast growing suburban areas
同时你还看到很多增长迅速的城郊区域
Look at Florida look at Atlanta, Dallas show up really strongly on that map
如佛罗里达州，亚特兰大，达拉斯，赎回权被没收的数量都极大
The interesting to do sort of better comparison
这是一个挺有意思的对比角度
Colorado is crucial if you wanted to look at places where you really had a shift from 2004 to right now
科罗拉多州很关键，如果你想研究那些，从2004年到现在投票倾向发生转变的州
Now, we don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow, but if we can trust the polls, I know a lot of public trusting the polls
虽然明天它到底会选谁仍是未知数，但如果我们相信民调的话，我知道很多人都很相信民调结果
but to the extent the polls can be trusted
但就当前的民调结果来看
the two most important states that seem to be shifting from the Republican to the Democratic, slate would be Colorado and Virginia
目测两个最重要的州都有从共和党转向民主党的倾向，这两个州分别是科罗拉多和弗吉尼亚
So the area around sort of a metropolitan Denver a really crucial place to look
因此丹佛都市圈附近的选情对我们的研究至关重要

视频及简介

这一集讲述了1972-2004年总统大选的历史与过程,介绍了近几届以来红蓝阵营的地理分布变化以及变化原因，对1972-2000年的总统选举进行了简略解释并非常详细地分析了2004年大选，对于全美大部分州的选情都进行了详尽的分析，可以阐述了08年大选前民调的趋势，可以从中瞥见近几年美国总统选举的发展变化。