听力文本

I think I've mentioned before
我之前跟你们讲过
I went through the top 30 counties in terms of the fastest growing by percent and I didn't find one that went for Kerry
我翻看了全美增长率最高的前30个县在04年的选情 没有一个是支持克里的
I stopped at that point
这足以说明一种现象
so certainly these fast growing suburban counties across it
这些快速增长的郊县都有着相同趋势
how would it be in next election that would be very interesting to see
在这次大选中他们会青睐哪一党 是一个值得研究的问题
certainly some people have said that some pollsters have said that Georgia might be in play
有些人认为 一些民意调查者认为 乔治亚可能出现激烈的角逐
North Carolina
北卡罗来纳
well we can see places like Durham and Orange County that's Chapel Hill University towns
你可以看到一些地方如达勒姆以及教堂山大学城所在的橙县
Charlotte big banking center now with the Financial Crash effect
银行业中心夏洛特 它最近受到了经济危机的影响
North Carolina is now by some measures the second most important banking center in the country
北卡罗来纳，从某个角度而言已成为全美第二重要的银行业中心

one reason why North Carolina is now in play
这是北卡在选举中受到重视的一个原因
and I links latest poll that Obama a couple of percentage points ahead
最新的民调显示奥巴马在北卡以及各百分点的优势领先
it has been largely the African American university towns
这片区域是聚集了大量非洲裔的大学城
you can't see it on this map but there's a real strong Republican vote in this area here
你从地图中看不出来 但这个区域是极度倾向共和党的
it correlates with something
这是因为这个区域与一些特殊的事物相关
well it correlates with this military
没错，它与军事有关
yes Marine Corps you can see, Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Lejeune, New River Marine Corps and so on
这里分布着很多海军陆战队 这里有樱桃派海军陆战队航空站，列尊营，新河海军陆战队等等
just like the university towns you can peg on the Democratic side
正如我们认为大学城都理所当然地倾向民主党
military areas
军事地区
Pensacola Florida would be another, to some extent even San Diego heavily Republican voting
例如佛罗里达的彭萨科拉 甚至包括圣地亚哥都是极为倾向共和党的
so you can see some pretty good correlations in those areas
在这个地区你会明显地看到这个规律

视频及简介

这一集讲述了1972-2004年总统大选的历史与过程,介绍了近几届以来红蓝阵营的地理分布变化以及变化原因，对1972-2000年的总统选举进行了简略解释并非常详细地分析了2004年大选，对于全美大部分州的选情都进行了详尽的分析，可以阐述了08年大选前民调的趋势，可以从中瞥见近几年美国总统选举的发展变化。