听力文本

if you look at the long term of American politics this sort of victories don't last
如果你纵观美国的政治局势 会发现没有哪个党能做常胜将军
the other party adjustments are made
因为处于弱势的党会调整自身
we have a two-party system and the two parties would remain competitive
我们有稳定的两党体系 两个党都会努力使自己具有竞争力
now there's a lot of thinking going on the Republican Party about what the direction to go
现在对于共和党接下来应采取怎样的发展方向 有很多说法
whether or not
他们应该往哪儿走
I mean many Republican strategists say the Republican Party wasn't conservative enough
很多共和党的政治战略家认为共和党现在不够保守
certainly under
尤其是
if you look at financial conservatism I think a good point can be made
从金融保守主义的角度来看 共和党显然不够保守

George Bush's administration ran up record deficit and that goes against what had traditionally been conservative economic policies
乔治布什执政期间 赤字创历史新高 这种做法显然是违背传统的 经济保守政策的
on the cultural front I think it's a much more contentious issue
从文化的角度来看 也许这一方面更具争议
I think the big debate really is over what we might call "Right Wing Populism"
最大的争议就在于 所谓的"右派民粹主义"到底是什么
as typified by Sarah Palin
这一派的人物代表是莎拉佩林
so it's very conservative in many aspects but it's a philosophy as I said before
所以虽然共和党在很多方面仍然保守 但他们所尊崇的信条
it doesn't sell very well among affluent educated suburban voters
并不太受到郊区受教育程度高 富裕选民的欢迎
and if you look at the affluent suburban counties as a real key to the countries
很多人认为这些富裕的郊县在大选中极为关键
economic future and political future that doesn't look like a particular good strategy
但对他们而言未来经济和政治的发展承诺 不具有什么诱惑力
that's debated though
不过这也是有争议的
and certainly there're many in the Republican Party who say that she is very important
也有很多共和党人说 佩林的作用非常关键
in maintaining enthusiasm for the Republicans among
她维护了人们对共和党人的热情
especially among rural deeply Evangelical voters
尤其是农村地区福音派的选民

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。