曾经仁慈的美联储现在似乎要报复市场(上)
日期:2022-08-03 10:00

(单词翻译:单击)

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Finance & economics

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财经板块

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Buttonwood: Wake-up call

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梧桐树:警钟

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The once-benevolent Fed now looks vengeful for markets

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曾经仁慈的美联储现在似乎要报复市场

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When stocks boomed early in the pandemic, an internet meme captured the madness of the moment.

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疫情初期股市大涨,一张网络表情包捕捉到了那一刻的疯狂i^Vc5^bot#g

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On the left-hand side of the image, a worried man exclaims that simply creating money cannot save the economy; on the right, a man representing the Federal Reserve replies “Haha money printer go brrr” while cranking out dollars.

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在图片的左边,一个忧心忡忡的人惊呼道,仅靠造钱并不能拯救经济;在右边,一名代表美联储的男子一边大量印钞,一边回答道:“哈哈,印钞机开动”oFq&,O#-&]CI)w

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Joseph Politano, author of Apricitas, an economics newsletter, recently tweaked the meme to better fit the present situation.

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经济学时事通讯《Apritas》的作者约瑟夫·波利塔诺最近稍稍改动了这张图,使其更符合当前的形势d6tmoe,Aj%M

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On the left, the worried man laments that excessive monetary tightening is increasing the risk of a recession; to the right, the Fed representative retorts “Haha money vacuum go brrr”, while hoovering up dollars.

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图片左边,那位忧心忡忡的人哀叹,过度的货币紧缩正在增加经济衰退的风险;右边,代表美联储的人一边吸走美元,一边回嘴:“哈哈,吸钞器开动ewXMUj+HhHqcuhO。”

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In more analytical, if less humorous, terms, another way of framing this shift is to ask whether the Fed put has become a Fed call.

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如果正经一点,从更具分析性的角度来看,另一种描述这种转变的方式是:问一问美联储的看跌期权是否已经变为美联储看涨期权723j7wGvLF^^pysE%77F

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The concept of a Fed put dates back to the era of Alan Greenspan, a former chairman of the central bank.

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美联储看跌期权的概念可以追溯到美联储前主席艾伦·格林斯潘的时代14HHtT]Lo%Sp*

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Starting with the stockmarket crash in 1987 and continuing for more than three decades, the Fed earned a reputation for easing policy, notably by cutting interest rates, whenever share prices plunged.

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1987年股市崩盘后的30多年里,美联储以实施宽松政策而闻名,尤其是股价一暴跌就实施的降息政策wkz!&-NRk2.Y&7^sv^v

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To traders this looks a bit like a put option, a basic hedging tool that sets a price floor for investments.

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对于交易员来说,这看起来有点像看跌期权,这是一种为投资设定价格下限的基本对冲工具tYMlp[6,g+[Mdpt1k;RE

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A Fed call would imply just the opposite: namely, that the central bank is in effect capping the market (similar to traders who sell call options on their stock holdings).

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美联储看涨期权正相反,意味着:央行实际上为市场价格设定上限(类似于交易员出售所持股票的看涨期权)Rj%X5c0)I3imOEMFKLVD

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Steve Englander of Standard Chartered, a bank, laid out this provocative idea in a recent note to clients: “The Fed may push back against equity market gains until it is comfortable that disinflation is a lock—in other words, [there is] a Fed call.”

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渣打银行的史蒂夫·英格兰德在最近给客户的一份报告中阐述了这一引人深思的想法:“在美联储确信通货紧缩已成定局之前,它可能会一直打压市场收益--换句话说,美联储看涨期权已经到来nR~RR1OpFN|YyU@。”

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This argument may, at first glance, seem rather crude.

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乍一看,这种说法可能显得有些不成熟%S0&]wBv.;=KSz2|

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The Fed has long denied that it targets asset prices in setting monetary policy.

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长期以来,美联储一直否认其在制定货币政策时有意影响资产价格@OY@j5o&23

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Narrowly, its denials are credible.

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它的否认勉强还算可信V^^FE=svr#!q

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Central bankers look at oodles of data, from real-time growth figures to surveys of inflation expectations.

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央行官员们要看大量数据,从实时增长数据到通胀预期调查的数据X]zc_wjU1,Dj4!75%r

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They cannot afford to be swayed by swings in stocks.

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他们承受不起股市波动的影响Pdl09NFAxn!e1SOcK1

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Moreover, share prices reflect many factors ranging from the overall economic outlook to corporate idiosyncrasies.

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此外,股价能反映许多因素,大到整体经济前景,小到企业特质l1vZkyHrCrSi;^

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Why would the Fed target something that is so volatile and only partially responsive to its actions?

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股价波动如此之大,美联储针对股价采取的措施也并非全部有效,美联储为什么要影响股价呢?

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