美国通胀啥时候是个头
日期:2022-01-05 09:30

(单词翻译:单击)

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Finance and Economics

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财经版块

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Follow the money

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跟着钱走

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The only thing that proved transitory about inflation in America in 2021 was the consensus that it would subside.

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事实证明,关于美国2021年的通货膨胀,唯一短暂的是人们认为它会逐渐下降的共识,390A1x+I|Xy&+

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The left-hand chart shows that analysts consistently revised up their predictions, trailing reality.

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左边的图表显示,分析师不断向上修正他们的预测,还是落后于现实lgq~oM,ZyA!

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Consumer prices are now rising by nearly 7% compared with a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1982.

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与去年同期相比,消费者价格上涨了近7%,这是自1982年以来的最快增速Jm.;l36vD6#

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What does the future hold?

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未来是什么样子?

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The right-hand chart presents two scenarios.

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右边的图表显示了两种情况OZa3L5e*kENI8M

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In the first, month-on-month inflation immediately falls back to its pre-pandemic trajectory.

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第一种情况,月度环比通胀率立即回落至疫情前的水平F36PLsPIORN.b

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Even so, it would take until the end of 2022 for annual inflation to slow to the 2% pace that used to be the norm.

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即便如此,年通胀率要到2022年底才能降至2%,这在过去是常态@InHTq0XE|;.JG7b^

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In the second case, consumer prices rise at the same monthly clip seen over the past year.

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第二种情况,消费者价格指数月度增幅与去年持平e[h~j*p*F_&QMPf)

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Annual inflation would soar to nearly 8% in February, and stay elevated.

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2月份,年通货膨胀率将飙升至近8%,并保持在较高水平(fmMTiJS!7Z

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Either way, one prediction seems rock-solid: the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in 2022, as the central bank itself indicated on December 15th.

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无论哪种情况,有一种预测似乎已成定局:美联储将在2022年开始加息,正如央行自己在12月15日表示的那样]r8@J(2wd)_6WISrYHFN

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