经济学人:印度经济增长的骗局(2)
日期:2019-06-21 19:19

(单词翻译:单击)

%nt__Kcz227mv@oB47t||Ng7;sQtxiA

中英文本

bVybNaacfJ|26Po

If India's statistics are overstated, who or what is to blame?
如果印度的统计数据被夸大,那么哪些人或物应受到责怪呢?
Political meddling is an inadequate answer, although this government, under Narendra Modi, has done plenty to arouse suspicion.
仅责怪政治干预是不够的,虽然在纳伦德拉·莫迪领导下的政府已经做了很多引起怀疑的事情JP1viV0kE=6RAXK
In November statisticians revised down growth figures from last decade, taking the shine off the previous government's record.
在11月,统计学家对过去十年的增长数据进行了下调,使上届政府的政绩黯然失色S|f2TGzt4LUc2mKrg
In January they revised up growth in 2016-18, the two fiscal years most affected by Mr Modi's daft
在1月,他们上调了2016-18年的经济增长,这两个财年受到了莫迪愚蠢行为
and disruptive decision to remove highdenomination bank notes from circulation. Both exercises raised eyebrows.
以及取消流通高面额纸币的破坏性决定的极大影响1B7*D_]+^#UH。两项行动均引人侧目J+Fh)ZD|S1m4ilUn%[Pu
But Mr Subramanian sidesteps these two recent controversies, excluding the latest revisions from his analysis.
但萨勃拉曼尼亚先生回避了这两个近期的争议问题,将最新的修订排除了他的报告z~^WBL7T(7K&7^H].![
Instead he concentrates his fire on a more fundamental technical change:
相反,他把精力集中在一个更根本的技术变革上:
a new method of calculating GDP, from 2011-12 onwards, that was adopted in early 2015.
2015年初采用了一种计算GDP的新方法,从2011年至2012年开始5GA5Fn1[7J%[2zz
Much of the preparation for this switch dated back to the previous government.
这一转变的大部分准备工作可以追溯到上届政府1P10ZpR#OX1

kl&pTXgaa*~JU)%

印度经济增长的骗局(2).jpg

R*.rA]9FTsra

And one of the new method's strangest results was an upward revision of growth in the tumultuous year before Mr Modi took office,
而新方法最奇怪的结果之一是对莫迪上任前动荡年份的经济增长进行了上调,
when the economy was reeling from high inflation and capital outflows. That contradicts the charge of political interference.
当时经济正受到高通胀和资本外流的冲击zO)kHBTJnW-bm%mXamr。这与政治干预的指控相矛盾AT10OQst4-XON
Why would Mr Modi's government fiddle the figures to flatter its hated predecessor?
莫迪政府为何要篡改数据,以讨好其令人憎恨的前任呢?
The new method may nonetheless suffer from other shortcomings.
尽管如此,新方法可能还存在其他缺点q!&e#!Q56&.44[L8
It may, for example, have failed to cope with the drop in oil prices in 2014.
例如,它可能无法应对2014年的油价下跌3Ti!%o^J7]49m
To illustrate: if an Indian company imports 10,000 rupees-worth of crude oil and adds 100 rupees of value to it,
举例来说:如果一家印度公司进口价值一万卢比的原油并增加100卢比的价值,
it might sell the refined product for 10,100 rupees.
它可能会以10100卢比的价格出售这种精制产品YDVxOd=e%g*%*Q3W
If the oil price subsequently halves, the company might try selling the same product for 5,110 rupees, boosting its margin.
如果油价随后下跌一半,该公司可能会试着以5110卢比的价格出售同样的产品,以提高利润率7UQXpEb6=gZ
An unwary statistician might conclude that Indian prices have dropped dramatically.
一个不太谨慎的统计学家可能会得出结论,印度的物价已大幅下跌%32BrpVUvB.)]XoT
But the Indian part of the total (the only bit that matters for GDP) has increased in price (from 100 to 110 rupees).
但是其中印度的那一部分(GDP中唯一重要的部分)价格上涨了(从100卢比涨到了110卢比)+w++xpE[Q3|;Mi,%j2K
The confused statistician may then treat an increase in rupee profits as evidence of real growth, not merely higher prices.
然后困惑的统计学家可能会将卢比利润的增长视为实际增长的证据,而不仅仅是价格上涨Fgbu^ZIFV9+]G5L4+
Such problems are less likely in more developed G20 countries, which keep better track of the prices of inputs.
在更发达的20国集团(G20),此类问题不太可能发生,因为这些国家对投入价格的跟踪能力更强Z2&wG[@|MtAlp.[yT

6*(Z2(rCla-oB0B@l

译文由可可原创,仅供学习交流使用,未经许可请勿转载YPHcO([3-OFvR

#Lz0pVfq^bE%Ai

词语解释

1.meddling 干预
Such meddling is common in areas such as energy and the internet.
这种干预在能源和互联网等领域十分普遍RK)dbT.NQ|q=qVS-]S5
2.take the shine off 使...黯然失色
Any one of our workmen could take the shine off the new foreman.
我们工人中的任何人都能超过那个新来的领班=Z1lY,yIIUQ#j
3.tumultuous 骚乱的
It's been a tumultuous day at the international trade negotiations in Brussels.
那是布鲁塞尔国际贸易谈判中纷乱的一天R%Re5)myW%R_Yonf
4.dramatically 急剧地;显著地
A fifth year of drought is expected to have dramatic effects on the California economy.
第五年遭受旱灾预计会对加利福尼亚的经济产生巨大的影响ao,42NSw(=AOTCKmtm

[M|CnUTyM1


CEJ^NbXERck+4~HqK[EqpH!^j;CJ(*7JR6k.NU3Ys3U
分享到
重点单词
  • inadequateadj. 不充分的,不适当的
  • confusedadj. 困惑的;混乱的;糊涂的 v. 困惑(confu
  • inflationn. 膨胀,通货膨胀
  • illustratev. 举例说明,(为书)作插图,图解
  • fiscaladj. 财政的,国库的
  • technicaladj. 技术的,工艺的
  • disruptiveadj. 破坏的;分裂性的;制造混乱的
  • marginn. 差额,利润,页边空白,边缘 vt. 使围绕于,加边
  • concludevi. 总结,作出决定 vt. 使结束,推断出,缔结
  • circulationn. 流通,循环,发行量,消息传播