美国在亚太地区制定新的经济框架
日期:2022-06-01 15:11

(单词翻译:单击)

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Finance & Economics

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财经版块

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The Indo-Pacific economy

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印太地区的经济

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A new pact for Asia: just don’t call it a trade deal

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为亚洲定制的新条约:不要把它当做贸易协议

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Amere three days after being sworn in as president in January 2017, Donald Trump signed an executive order withdrawing America from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (tpp), a 12-country free-trade deal he had railed against on the campaign trail.

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在2017年1月宣誓就任美国总统三天后,唐纳德·特朗普签署了一项让美国退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(tpp)的行政命令,这是他在竞选期间抨击的一项12国自由贸易协定23m#yMv#K*E9

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On May 23rd, 488 days after his own swearing-in, President Joe Biden tried to reverse some of the damage by unveiling a new pact, the 13-country Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (ipef).

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5月23日,在宣誓就职488天后,乔·拜登总统试图通过公布一项新协定——13国印太经济框架(ipef)来弥补一些损害8kpIM^89WOvCfghxOCy

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That Mr Biden took so much longer to launch his Asian trade policy illustrates one basic truth: it is far easier to tear up agreements than it is to craft them anew.

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拜登花了这么长的时间来启动他的亚洲贸易政策,这说明了一个基本的事实:撕毁协议远比重新制定协议容易Zi7rO[_Bu1tBlT1*E

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Inevitably, one way to look at the ipef is by way of comparison to the tpp (which lives on in reduced form, absent America).

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不可避免,人们对ipef的一种解读是把它与tpp (以简化形式存在,不包括美国)进行比较|hWsU_J_pdv

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Some bits sound rather familiar. One selling-point for the tpp was that it was a “21st-century trade agreement” complete with high standards for workers’ rights and e-commerce rules.

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有些说法听起来很耳熟%a|]CK!u3bvwNQ6NEK。tpp的一个亮点是,它是一项“21世纪的贸易协定”,对工人权利和电子商务规则有着高标准要求B@y#CqsvPG~tr[pit

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The ipef is also “a 21st-century economic arrangement”, according to Jake Sullivan, America’s national security adviser.

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美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文表示,ipef也是“21世纪的经济规划”.X_b9oYZusj-5VXCEf@

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The original tpp members accounted for nearly 40% of global gdp, roughly the same share as the current ipef partners.

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最初的tpp成员国占全球gdp的近40%,与目前的ipef成员国的份额大致相同Kytr!Ui8_L;_o[4wf@b

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Most crucially, China is still excluded.

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最关键的是,中国仍然被排除在外bvEf7hRLxAy,(!pQ

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The ipef, like the tpp, is an attempt to build a trading structure in Asia that enshrines both America’s economic principles and its economic power.

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与tpp一样,ipef试图在亚洲建立一个既包含美国经济原则,又包含美国经济实力的贸易结构HXu9VmxLq#~0=qk

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That, however, is where the similarities end.

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然而,两者的相似之处也仅限于此%Ay39.zJxxxfX

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Mr Trump’s success in winning support with his calls to stop countries “ripping off” America has made many in Washington leery of ambitious free-trade deals.

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特朗普呼吁阻止美国被“剥削”,成功赢得了支持,这让华盛顿的许多人对雄心勃勃的自由贸易协定持怀疑态度Qk!2tDn~5O

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So rather than starting work on a pact that would require approval from Congress, Mr Biden’s team has designed a framework that is more malleable and may avoid that political death-trap.

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因此,拜登的团队并没有开始制定一项需要国会批准的协议,而是设计了一个更具可塑性的框架,这也许能避免陷入政治死亡的困境^XGb,(|zm,Hmx7U^

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In announcing the launch, Katherine Tai, the United States Trade Representative (ustr), pledged to “keep Congress close” in shaping the ipef--a far cry from putting it to a vote.

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在宣布启动该计划时,美国贸易代表邰丽华(Katherine Tai)承诺在制定ipef时会“与国会保持密切联系”——这与最终送去表决相距甚远)IIF#qGd#%+(zET

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Malleability has a few big downsides. It limits what America can offer.

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这种可塑性也有几个很大的缺点2^b)!LcZ9yd。它限制了美国能提供的东西9,U;HiDqJ1Ds

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A cut in tariff rates, a plank of most free-trade deals, is a non-starter because it would require congressional support.

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降低关税是大多数自由贸易协定的重要组成部分,但由于需要国会的支持,降低关税是不可能的xhj_]w+WI#D0=jiuwy

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America still vows to push for strong labour and environmental standards but, unable to offer more access to its vast market, it lacks a key bargaining chip.

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美国仍承诺推行强有力的劳工和环境标准,但由于无法让其他国家进入其广阔的市场,美国损失了一个关键的谈判筹码v9A_q+j)+XiYbz,

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The durability of the ipef is also in doubt.

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ipef的持久性也存在疑问qu;3+~G3V~

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Were Mr Trump to return to the Oval Office in 2024, he would not need three days to ditch the framework.

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如果特朗普在2024年重返白宫的椭圆形办公室(Oval Office),不到3天他就会放弃该框架7dTII!.B9_V,

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The Biden administration has tried to make a virtue of these limits.

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拜登政府想要利用这些限制ygKJQIN|+K.&qG)3nb9

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Rather than conceiving of the ipef as a conventional deal, it has declared that the pact will rest on four pillars, with trade promotion just one.

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它没有把ipef设想成一项常规协议,而是宣称该协议有四个基本支柱,而贸易促进只是其中一个%R.MQBVJcTvL[|

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The other three goals are to make supply chains more resilient; to promote infrastructure investment and clean energy; and to form new rules on taxation and anti-corruption.

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另外三个目标是让供应链更具弹性; 促进基础设施投资和清洁能源; 并制定税收和反腐败的新规则GFYDypDlP1b

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It is tempting to dismiss such a wide-ranging agenda as too vague to amount to anything.

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人们很容易认为,这样一个涉猎广泛的议程太过模糊,没有任何意义nm!X8yXT6euOq5._-

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But paradoxically, a near-stumble at the launch of the framework illustrated that it could, in theory, have force to its contents: America had to tone down the language in its founding documents, otherwise some in Asia would have balked at signing them.

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但矛盾的是,框架启动时的一次差错表明,从理论上讲,它的内容是有力量的:美国必须淡化其创始文件中的语言,否则一些亚洲国家会拒绝签署这些文件4BB@=[8ycXznwWJdAQMd

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Matthew Goodman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank, notes that the focus on topics such as digital trade, competition policy and bribery makes for a good menu for the ipef.

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智库战略与国际研究中心的马修·古德曼指出,对数字贸易、竞争政策和贿赂等话题的关注让ipef的内容看起来还不错RrVlSZlKUhNbT

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“These are issues that are very much in the interest of our partners in the region,” he says. At the same time, breadth poses a challenge.

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他表示:“这些问题非常符合我们在该地区的合作伙伴的利益7JDFWg-.MQJ~8g。” 与此同时,框架的广度也带来了挑战kG.Likj;G%RXx

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Instead of just having the ustr as the lead negotiator, as in normal trade talks, the Commerce Department is in charge of the non-trade portfolio.

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与普通贸易谈判中只有美国贸易代表作为首席谈判代表不同,此次美国商务部负责的是非贸易部门x#[;mvTDpS7|i&4yeo

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That risks turning it into a multi-headed beast.

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这就可能让该框架变成多元领导机制e[dz0b=+#SrM7bC4y(W]

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For now, many in the region are most pleased by the symbolism. The wounds from America’s tpp exit are still raw.

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目前,该地区的许多国家对这一规定的象征意义最为满意u,aN%e2.C;e。美国退出tpp的伤口仍未愈合bNCmIw7hYTn)c

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Since Mr Biden’s election victory, allies have waited and waited for America to devise a new Asian trade strategy.

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自拜登当选以来,盟友们一直在等待美国制定新的亚洲贸易战略n13fexdp2,D3,

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At last it has arrived, even if it is more notable for its political constraints than its economic potential.

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虽然政治约束比经济潜力更引人注目,但它最终还是到来了1cpb~@yofEG+d%#pa7qd

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“We are just happy to have them at the table,” says one Australian official.

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一位澳大利亚官员表示:“我们很高兴他们加入进来ELA#MynPxkPK。”

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