经济学人:欧元从繁荣到衰退 (2)
日期:2019-02-07 18:02

(单词翻译:单击)

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中英文本

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Early signs suggest GDP too will disappoint. On January 15th Germany's statistics office released figures suggesting that
早期迹象显示GDP也将令人失望fEkqpE[k|Cu4y(-。1月15日,德国统计处发布的数据表明
the economy only narrowly avoided a recession last year: after contracting by 0.2% in the third quarter, it barely grew in the fourth.
去年该国勉强躲过一场经济衰退:第三季度收缩0.2%后,第四季度略有增长+,c,_m=zE5XnIGmXuG*
Italy seems likely to have gone into recession in the second half of 2018.
意大利可能在2018年下半年卷入经济衰退之中&@hrwy!.j3#q2E%_,N0d
While many have pointed to weak external demand as the primary cause of recent growth woes, domestic demand has also fallen short.
虽然很多人将矛头指向疲软的外部需求,认为这是近期经济增长问题的主因,但国内需求也未能达标~GcB*m_Oqw%t,4o
Andrew Kenningham of Capital Economics notes that consumption growth slowed significantly in 2018 even as unemployment fell,
凯投宏观的安德鲁·肯宁厄姆指出当失业率下降时,2018年的消费增长明显放缓,
a worrying sign that "consumers have lost their nerve". Consumer confidence fell over the course of last year.
这是一条令人担忧的迹象:“消费者已经失去了理智czsp=.gwa,。”在过去的一年里,消费者信心下滑hEz|#aLAfv^6fm9K

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欧元从繁荣到衰退 (2).jpg

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And there are lurking risks. Mr Colijn reckons the biggest threats to growth in 2019 include a slowdown in China,
并且还存在潜伏风险R]%boZa]3wc。科林认为2019年经济增长最大的威胁包括中国经济放缓、
a disorderly no-deal Brexit, and an escalating trade war with America. Trade is slowing.
混乱的无协议脱欧以及与美国贸易战争的加剧3JCdHuOh2JK#9hC。贸易在减速iJT1xh&5;K7+#@7X
The World Bank recently lowered its expectations of growth in global trade volumes for this year and the next by around half a per cent.
世界银行将对今年和明年全球交易的增长预期降低了约0.5%&34srkT&BU6.WTqO~wI
For now, a full-blown recession across the currency area this year seems unlikely.
今年货币区似乎暂时不会出现全面衰退qOn(0@;!*f]YFrWMMko
Economists expect the euro-zone economy to expand by 1.5% in 2019.
经济学家们预计2019年,欧元区经济会出现1.5%的涨幅YZv9zEmvaW+ZCTI
But if such growth fails to materialise, the ECB will need to consider what tools to use to stimulate it.
但如果这种增长没能实现,那么ECB将需要考虑使用什么工具来刺激增长1LlDf-#zVpV
It could extend its forward guidance—for the moment it expects to keep interest rates at current levels "at least through the summer".
ECB可以延长前瞻指导期限—目前ECB希望能够将利率维持在目前水平,且“至少要撑过这个夏天”slrKhE%FA4q2DB.V#%RP
Another option would be to extend its targeted longer-term refinancing operations,
另一种选择是延长其定向长期再融资操作,
which offer cheap funds to banks that lend to firms and households.
给银行提供廉价资金,让这些银行给公司和家庭贷款LUHn6Ae=Qf0Vi
As for the bond-buying programme, Mario Draghi, the ECB's president,
至于债券购买项目,ECB行长马里奥·德拉吉
acknowledged in December that at points it was "the only driver" of recovery in some parts of the euro zone.
在12月承认,在欧元区的某些国家中,这是经济复苏的“唯一驱动力”|bx6oTVIF3fm
Disappointing data suggest the central bank might not hold the brakes down for long.
令人失望的数据表明央行可能不会一直踩着刹车t0NFCT#HKP.Yc%.

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词语解释

1.release 发布
They're not releasing any more details yet.
他们还不准备发放更多详情rK#0r_ZyR5P,bk)x
2.external demand 外部需求
China needs to stabilise and expand external demand.
我们需要稳定和拓展外需,更致力于扩大内需YhLhtP!R)~L;|%
3.slowdown 放慢
There has been a sharp slowdown in economic growth.
在经济增长方面一直存在急剧的减速eWI,%Fh7gyhk
4.escalate 加剧
Both unions and management fear the dispute could escalate.
各工会与资方都害怕争端会加剧Mnch8^z=Hzih]kGR8&oR

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