一场太过冒险的赌博(下)
日期:2022-03-11 10:00

(单词翻译:单击)

VzC,=*WBaUKE9hDu-kkhw1N.FXLt

In theory, excluding Russian oil and gas from sanctions should enable the trading houses to continue their day-to-day operations.

2s2WJ8!Q3s

理论上讲,将俄罗斯石油和天然气排除在制裁之外,应该能让这些贸易公司继续日常的运营d4tWfE=[Dz#KN0eN%Nj

%+H+a2n6mI

In practice, it does not because energy trading is as much about the flow of money as of molecules.

TJ[S5NkxTl~U;

而在实践中,并不是这样的,因为能源交易既是分子的流动,也是金钱的流动C6pulgB;(2)26jYlYU

@Z;^91Q2IJcJ*

Cargoes are financed by banks.

^vEF-vd..xxT

货款由银行提供i0=@X6|q[KJ

euQEcwB;ECNF2dRK1

They require letters of credit guaranteeing payment.

wwu]qZ6qZDXyc]@#w-f

银行要求提供信用证书作为付款保证3P=x]b((1[Y3=,!h

_TrFesT&_TVp66hw^nW

They involve frequent messaging between banks working for the buyers and sellers.

~A._s!VYW]MOK+aZ

这其中涉及为买卖双方服务的银行之间频繁的信息传递Ct-LoWpuTPkjf[m^^

#MeDnEItW=f.

Until March 1st, when names were released of the seven Russian lenders potentially blocked from the SWIFT interbank-communications system, many energy-related transactions in Russia were halted, traders said, owing to the counterparty risk.

~Z9ZSBGufil@*&W;L

交易商表示,直到3月1日,7家可能被SWIFT银行间通信系统屏蔽的俄罗斯银行的名字公布,俄罗斯的许多能源相关交易都因交易对手风险而暂停W;HL;yp1un!L1j--^

!ddkBR#^tZ1tx~9GF!;3

Moreover, fears surfaced that as Russia's aggression on Ukraine escalates, sanctions will be strengthened.

dlx=9jS7^Q(

此外,人们担心,随着俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略升级,制裁将会加强RaNqZ(J=Y^~J

#9AA_l%Rld63mMH5KKgX

“The tit has to be reasonably in line with the tat,” says Jean-Francois Lambert, a commodities consultant.

NT-*r1S,)R!,9i[t4IP

“针锋需合理相对,”大宗商品咨询师让-弗朗索瓦·兰伯特如是说CH44FBtF^RnxRHr

ORDhfH!ZXFKr

The problem is exacerbated by the length of time cargoes of oil and LNG spend at sea.

FfGF(FvGntO

石油和液化天然气在海上停留的时间越长,问题就越严重sKjDeJj30e~=-qAw

k;J#M~xjkOy@weG

By the time they reach port, sanctions on Russian energy may be in place.

Y(7j4NZ]9bxvE2]Z.AI

当它们抵达港口时,对俄罗斯能源的制裁可能已经生效DAt-#)~Acd8TET36_Gj

h|^BLkj;y~)dO=xR

“The biggest grey area is that no one knows what comes next,” says Daniel Martin, who specialises in shipping rules at HFW, a law firm.

dJQo;2#._I,t7KK

“最大的不确定是没有人知道接下来会发生什么,”在HFW律师事务所专门研究航运规则的丹尼尔·马丁说ZmL+3G(t;lhAVKv

w3OQmM63Bj

Logistical chaos compounds the uncertainty.

wQo-%(L0&M_^FB%)I

后勤的混乱加剧了这种不确定性zb=Mp4m#Xp)Q^09

zL~CgxY@C!jVyP

Oil-tanker rates on the Black Sea adjacent to Russia and Ukraine have surged as fighting has intensified.

XKcLbmxYfjkQ4

随着战事升级,与俄罗斯和乌克兰相邻的黑海的油轮运价飙升vUEyht!eO,OpJ1%,

eyJ~f2|M~Y6

As well as business risks, the trading firms face reputational ones.

;!=NaSdnkoJR3Y]

除了商业风险,贸易公司还面临着声誉风险ZLA#*kGc0d;

u-wJs=qH;maX2

This is exacerbated by long-standing links with firms and individuals at the heart of the regime.

k,,fM9(Zv94-

与处于政权核心的公司及个人的长期联系加剧了这种情况mIO|44ew%s1#

7TRt5MZN-U+CRgNuh%

In “The World for Sale”, a recent book, the authors argue that the merchants have probably been more engaged with Mr Putin's autocracy than anyone in the world of international business.

g@^@[TIl@LgIS)g2

在最近出版的一本书《待售的世界》中,作者们认为,商人可能比国际商界的任何人都更多地参与到了普京的独裁统治中qs;ar0[_JUZ%h_-u[dQy

@~HXBBg9S%D)O07w-)mO

Despite a stand-off between Russia and the West, they made vast loans to Rosneft in exchange for oil-supply deals.

Iw.Z=RPcSJ=z8S

尽管俄罗斯与西方正进行对峙,他们还是向Rosneft提供了巨额贷款,以换取石油供应交易NC^!(Qa)z9g!6q0fh2

I).gTD7nMcTH3|bzFIy

Two years after Russia seized Crimea in 2014, Glencore co-invested $11bn to buy part of the Russian government's stake in Rosneft (it has since sold almost all of it).

E6)QYzLdGk55

在俄罗斯于2014年占领克里米亚两年之后,Glencore联合投资110亿美元购买了俄罗斯政府在Rosneft的部分股份(后来该公司几乎将这些股份全部出售)]!J0UEDKRa,AYBmFq_

5l@Hr6aEZRG

After Trafigura and Vitol invested in Vostok, they received supply deals from Rosneft.

#=hsuB&zrCe~5rnpw

Trafigura和Vitol在投资了Vostok之后,获得了Rosneft的供应协议grYw0%Wj.-kY&3o=W

yANh,=n0z3!|Y

Mark Rossano, CEO of C6 Capital Holdings, a consultancy, believes that both the oligarchs and the traders were caught out by the economic reprisals that the war has unleashed.

_|_mxZWZi[Gmi#LP

咨询公司C6 Capital Holdings的首席执行官马克·罗萨诺认为,无论是政治寡头还是交易商,都在战争引发的经济报复中陷入困境zmAKl[oWc#46AjxePG

16Yh5TEd0H=

They will survive.

lF.hymPd,v

他们会挺过去的sZ,m1X0435Z%E3l5ocs2

)_S9VkX*k#LC(l

Even with business in Russia in free fall, crisis breeds opportunity.

3vD;BZDA;]WN6V,BL]0T

虽然在俄罗斯的商业处于自由落体式下跌之中,但危机也孕育着机遇c5uMn!~_nZl4Y

uxAOh386n48TH5am

As Western countries such as America release strategic reserves of crude to stop the price of oil soaring, they are queuing up for cargoes.

Lkzo*E1&|LX6lqA

当美国等西方国家为阻止油价飙升而释放战略原油储备时,他们正在排队购买石油5BR8DW*og[JleVN

!6)#c-8f3~W7].OCk

If Western sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil are lifted so that it can offset a potential loss of Russian crude, they have the contacts to move the stuff.

!8I!-EsSKN

如果西方解除对伊朗石油的出售制裁,以抵消可能损失的俄罗斯原油,他们也有社会关系来转移这些东西1~jusHb0zz)V

1l~6bJh6Rx9xaeoa#~u*

But these are dangerous times.

Cvpw[R5Bk5BG%HS

但现在是危险时期NjI6[QJME*#ux6I

ZY2d&yn2Wx%D@R

The West's reaction to Mr Putin's war is visceral.

k4qQ+,VujZ

西方对普京的战争的反应是发自肺腑的SXaz;E@EQ]-

~Kty-0c=m,uJ.8;%KZB

It is one thing to be considered a non-aligned merchant providing the world with what it needs.

1E+Rx_t@b9O]T,qN

被当作是为世界提供所需的不结盟商人是一回事!PJv(9AZY.

CJuB+-A1]lL

It is another to be seen as a mercenary.

WdSg8pO.Swb!23A.t

被视为雇佣兵则是另外一回事i*cMlhbu[)Fp&

8^MBmFvXGn

译文由可可原创,仅供学习交流使用,未经许可请勿转载8qQ.lX~[nc

vMF0M*sz.=Ug768=Kw8-VlN]t_GsK+Es-H@+[&6w#SncL%FcX.ESG
分享到