如何预测抛硬币(下)
日期:2023-10-31 10:22

(单词翻译:单击)

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Enter Mr Bartos, and his admirable dedication to empiricism.

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巴托斯先生登场了,他对经验主义的奉献令人钦佩5J[4x36*|U#ax]G8p2i

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He convinced 48 volunteers to perform 350,707 coin tosses, using everything from an Indian two-rupee piece to a Swiss two-franc coin.

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他说服48名志愿者投掷了350,707枚硬币,硬币从印度的两卢比硬币到瑞士的两法郎硬币都使用到了V8&7r])3RH+W8#ZF^

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His data confirmed what the physics had predicted.

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他的数据证实了物理学的预测s@Fc_+4z1tBj5cq]iS@

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The coins landed same-side up 50.8% of the time.

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硬币在同一面落地时的概率高达50.8%UAQNcXx]jjX

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The statistics revealed that the coins themselves showed no particular bias.

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统计数据显示,硬币本身并没有表现出特别的偏差2iY-b@ucb^wg;W9g

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The determining factor was indeed humans’ apparent inability to throw straight.

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决定性的因素确实是人类明显没扔直[o6q-TCS7u]p8D

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Mr Bartos was not the first person to collect statistics on coin tosses.

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巴托斯并不是第一个收集掷硬币数据的人qhlC.PObA2syX

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But he is the first to have done so on a scale large enough to detect the bias.

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但他是第一个在足够大的范围内检测到偏差的人O0q+eR((0G-Exk

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(A previous effort of 40,000 tosses, conducted by two students at the University of California, Berkeley, lacked the statistical power to confirm the theory.)

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(之前加州大学伯克利分校的两名学生进行了4万次投掷实验,缺乏证实这一理论的统计能力[L_9*u8C.j+1LrY2。)

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A 50.8% chance is only very slightly different from perfect fairness.

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50.8%的概率与完全公平只有很小的差别*s[3.Y[0k%NS6fJQ8REB

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But Mr Bartos points out that it is bigger than the advantage enjoyed by a casino in most varieties of blackjack.

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但巴托斯先生指出,这比在赌场大多数种类的21点游戏中所享有的优势更大;B,[BKifLf3-65+%-3

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And in some situations it may matter.

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在某些情况下,这可能很重要ZQY%^nB+==

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In 2019 Sue Cudilla became mayor of Araceli, a town in the Philippines, on the toss of a coin after the election had been declared a dead heat.

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2019年,在选举宣布进入白热化后,苏·库迪拉通过抛硬币成为菲律宾阿拉切利镇的市长U_^T#nj2C^hFZn

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Even more importantly, a coin toss can determine who bowls or bats first in cricket.

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更重要的是,掷硬币可以决定板球比赛中谁先投球或先击球T8EVdjs]5deF70BB

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Professional athletes spend thousands of dollars and hours of training in search of marginal gains.

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职业运动员花费数千美元和数小时的训练寻求的只是边际收益unEdKXf3JxIpU8,@MU

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Perhaps they should look to the loose change in the umpire’s pocket.

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也许他们应该指望裁判口袋里的硬币^3&[f2wmb*X=i1zwLdLO

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