The next two weeks will be critical for theEU's future withGermanytaking a pivotal role and here's why:Germanymay be the euro zone'seconomic power houses, pockets are deep. But they are fraying.Germany's centralbank, the Bundes bank, is already on the hook for at least 800 billion dollarsof peripheral country debt. And that's about a quarter of German GDP. Thiscan't just be about Germany bank-rolling bailouts. Everyone is saying they needa deeper, more integrated EU. Everyone of course, except for Europeanpoliticians.

接下来的两周对欧盟的未来至关重要，其中德国扮演了中枢角色，原因在于：德国可能是欧元区的经济发动机，他们口袋里有钱Q.RCgxnB4=+F7he%。不过，他们目前也入不敷出;bSZ%q0.z4GlVpBEt_8,。德国的中央银行，邦德银行，已经陷入至少8000亿美元的外围国债危机，这一数目相当于德国GDP产值的1/4*JF5!gDIMGIt^EC。因此，仅仅依赖德国银行滚动救助是不可能的2a~AZ5,Ny@4pzTI。大家都说需要更加深入整合的欧盟77u_JXO1G|f#HR。当然，这是大家的想法，欧盟的政治家们可不是这样想的F+M2Kt0CdO~5~%YLbZ;6。

Now the marriage analogy here might becliché but it so aptly describes the EU: married, in name only. They have yetto consummate this thing. Now what would that take will first, politically,they would have to take a big step to smooth out the economic bumps in weakercountries like Greece, Spain and Portugal. They are nursing recessions, highunemployment, and some are now suggesting that austerity has actually beenself-defeating and responsible for triggering those recessions. Now that wouldmean committing to a more federal system, that in an orderly way makes transferpayments, a lot of those transfer payments coming from countries like Germany, thosetransfer payments going from strong countries to weaker ones whenevernecessary. This may seem likeGermanyis committing to the footing the bill, with absolutely no payback, but the riskof contagion is real and here is why this is just one measure: if Spanish banksfail, German Banks remain the most exposed. I mean look at this:Germanytakingon 10%. The pressure forGermanyand others to fully commit to Europe in everyway is strong and blunt and many like hedge fund billionaire George Soros aresaying: Look! This is the warning you have little time and little room fordebate now.

婚姻这个类比用在这里，可能已经过时了，不过这个词还是很适合描述欧盟目前的状况：结婚了，只是在名义上；他们尚未完婚IFB,49hQDX!NUZf。目前，欧盟可能最先采取的行动，政治上行动，他们应该不得不大刀阔斧去除那些疲弱的国家肿瘤，如希腊，西班牙和葡萄牙nV||tetF]|psx^3Vma。这些国家在孕育衰退，高失业率，现在还有人建议，紧缩政策实际只是弄巧成拙，并应该为触发萧条负责n3M=beC^8~J~[i,。这意味着，应该致力于一个更加联邦的系统，即以一种有序的方式进行转移支付1=F@i*cF,v_~。但是，实际上，许多这些转移支付来源于德国这样的国家，他们从经济坚挺的国家转移支付至经济疲弱的国家MrU9bXYAx#SRt。这一切看起来似乎，德国正不求任何回报地，致力于做这些账单的坚强后盾，但是感染的风险是实实在在的，这里是其中一种可能的感染方式：如果西班牙银行破产，那么德国银行首当其冲将遭受牵连hSbnBUv(jJ5pzx#b。我提请大家注意：德国已经占了10%的西班牙股份aN4R4#A1Oi!ssF77#o。让德国和其他国家以任何方式，完全投身于欧盟的压力是巨大的，也是迟钝的，极象套利基金L^F4O1jM=A。亿万富翁George Soros说道，“看吧”6KTXnz0iucO;OAU|。这是一种警告，但是此时此刻你却没有时间和余力展开讨论_&i2[O-C*,vmuko+~FOn。

Paula, CNN, London.

CNN记者于伦敦报道Yy~SslU9JoWpl~)kV。