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2008 Asian markets outlook

CNN's Andrew Stevens asks Edgar Chuan of Descartes Investment Management what the future holds for the Asian markets

No, this is where everybody has been anticipated because when Goldman Sachs came out as a report almost two years ago talked about BRIC, explicitly, Brazil, Russia, India and China. And this four country because given the, I mean, the people and education level and the economic growth of this four country that definitely, you know, this four markets, everyone has anticipated them to be performing well.

OK. On that basis then, 2008 we will see pretty much more of the same?

Yes, I will say 2008 is gonna be pretty much the same and I think if actually we would talk about Asia's, I think maybe Vietnam has standed a very good chance to be performing very well as well.

We are just looking at Vietnam that was a 28% compared with say India 30% to 40%, to Shanghai nearly 85%.So Vietnam underperforming at the moment why do you like it in 2008?

Vietnam is underperforming is because of the width and the depth of the market because right now the entire, you know, stock exchange market capitalization is only about 20 billion dollars and given that they are still in a very primitive stage and there is a lot of room for growth. So once, you know, you will see more of the state-owned enterprises as well as the private, I will say, privately-owned company go on to be listed in Vietnam, you will be seeing a very different kind of market and also they are trying, the Vietnamese government is trying to improve the infrastructure of both exchanges in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

Looking at Shanghai and India, the two best performing markets in 2007, there was talk this year, a lot of talk that certainly Shanghai was overheating. It was a bubble forming, to a lesser degree, India as well getting too hot. But you are saying it's still gonna be very hot next year?

Yes, because when you look at the liquidity of the market. There's still a lot of excess money or hot money is traveling around, you know, globally and when you look at the opportunities, this take for example, the US's subprime worries and probably that's gonna lead to some economic declines because the consumers are not gonna spend and Japan isn't enough room for that as well. And where are you gonna put your money, right? And given that India and China, the fundamentals are still there, the economic growth is still very strong and everyone is projecting at least 10% of growth of GDP next year. And given that, you know the fundamental plus, there are a lot of money out floating. So these two markets will definitely be performing very well next year.

Do you think looking at the economic fundamentals of the stock market the people talk about though that these two markets are probably overvalued, they are probably in a bubble situation.

I would say this is really way too early to say that bubble is forming because given that when you are in an emerging market, you tend to give them a little bit higher in terms of PE or PB ratio. That is because they will enjoy a better growth than the developed countries. It's just like sort of same kind of banks that in China you get 4.5 times PB, price book, but you won't be able to get that in the States because for Citibank probably about 2.5 times price book ratio. That's about it.

Finally, how does a retail investor play a market like Shanghai or India, particularly Shanghai because it's so close to outside investors?

You will be able to buy some ETF, exchange traded fund, and you are able to buy into some of the funds that is China-focused and I think that would be the best way for you to participate in the market but again, you will always have to look at any of your investment on the 12-month horizon. If you were just thinking about, you know, just like trading an individual stock punting the market, sometimes that is not gonna get you the return you are hoping for.

stand a good chance (of) v. 很有可能, 大有希望

exchange market 外汇市场

market capitalization 市场资本总值，市场资本总额，市值

liquidity 流动资金

hot money n. (为追求高额利润而流动的)短期流动资金

文本参考中文翻译

商业报道：２００８亚洲市场预测　

每个人都可以预测到，因为大约两年前高盛公司发布一份关于金砖四国的报告，这四国就是巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国。这四个国家、四片市场，借助于其人民和教育水平、经济发展，每个人都可预料它们将会表现得很好。

好的。这样的话，2008年将和这样的预测差不多吗？

是的，差不多。我想事实上谈到亚洲，可能越南将会有机会来做得很好。

越南表现不佳是由于其市场的广度和宽度，因为目前整个股票交易市场的资本总额仅有200亿美元，而且还处于初始阶段，还有很大的发展空间。所以我们将会看到更多的国有企业及私人企业。我敢说，越南将出现私人企业，我们将看到一个非常不同的市场，越南政府也在改善连通河内和胡志明市的基础设施。

看看上海和印度，这是2007年做得最好的两个市场，很多评论说上海已经发展过热，这是中泡沫经济，同时印度也变得过热。但你能说明年还会很热吗？

是的，因为你看全球金融市场上的流动资金，有大量的多余资金和短期流动资金，比如，美国的次级房贷将会导致一定的经济衰落，因为消费者不准备消费，日本也是如此。那么你能把资金投到哪里去呢？还有大量的浮动资金。所以这两个市场明年一定会运行很好。

考虑到股票市场的基本经济因素，人们说这两个市场可能被定价过高，可能已经处于泡沫状态了。

我想说的是，说是泡沫还为时过早，因为这是新兴市场，根据市盈率或市净率，要允许过高一点儿。因为它们比发达国家的发展的快一些。这就好像中国有市净率为4.5倍的银行，但是在美国却找不到，因为花旗银行可能只有2.5倍的账面价值比率。就是这样。

最后一个问题，零售业投资者怎样在上海或印度运作市场，特别是上海，因为它离外部投资者很近？

可以购买一些交易型开放式指数基金，可以买一些以中国为重心的基金，我想这是参与市场的最好办法。但是，整个一年中你必须关注你的任何一项投资，好比交易一种个股，有时你可能无法得到你所期望的。

punt [pʌnt]

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