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Will the Dollar fall further?

Andrew Wilkinson, analyst at Interactive Brokers, says the US dollar won't likely fall further with investors pricing in interest rate cuts

I’m Lisa Twaronite, with market watch. How will the recently battered dollar fare in 2008? And joining me today is Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst with Interactive brokers.

Thanks for having me, Lisa.

Thank you for being here. With the US Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates further, how far do you think the dollar's gonna fall?

I don't think the dollor's got that much further to fall if at all. There are so many intereste rate cuts already priced into the Euro- dollar strip, that i find it difficult to see that investors can't , can't already discount the prospect of a better economy later on this year for the United States. And that would help out global growth.

To what extent do you think the dollar's fall so far relfects a lack of confidence in the US economy.

There are other fundamental reasons, such as the wild trade and the budget deficits, that have helped drive down the value of the dollar over the last five or six years, and with the strong motor of growth that the US economy provided and particularly over the last couple of years. The two things don't really match, so, i'm not convinced this is a lack of confidence based upon the decline in the housing market, or the explosion of the housing market, so i think, i think they'are looking forward to the dollar's prospects a little brighter.

And do you think the weaker dollar is one of the reasons that US Sovereign wealth funds have been buying stakes in US financial firms so far?

Certainly, i think, the value, the outright value of the dollar makes those investments appealing. But, i think that having fallen by more than 30% a lot of these banking stocks look extremely appealing, particularly to overseas investors, so this is a double whammy forward, and i think this is a great long-term investing relationship for the Sovereign Wealth funds, and it's curious particularly a time when the retail investors and probably a lot of institutional investors on this side of the Atlantic, are throwing in the town, and we are seeing some capitulation in the stock markets.

At what point this year do you think the dollar is going to solidly turn around?

I think January, 2008, is right now, is going to be a point of turnaround, probably for both the stock market, and for the dollar. I think, we've, it's curious to see that the value of the Euro hasn't made a fresh height for this move, given the absolute plummet in the value of the stock indices. So if it's not gonna happen now, it says, certainly doesn't feel like its gonna happen later this year.

All right, thank you very much. Thanks Lisa. Andrew Wilkinson from interactive brokers.

文本参考中文翻译

美元会继续下跌吗？
盈透公司分析师Andrew Wilkinson说，由于投资者利率定价下降，美元不可能进一步下跌。

我是“市场观察”节目的Lisa，2008年美元市场走势如何？今天盈透公司资深分析师Andrew Wilkinson将为我们谈谈这一问题。

谢谢lisa。

谢谢您能参加。美国联邦储备局准备进一步减息，您认为美元还会跌多少？

我一点都不认为美元会跌得太多。欧元兑美元的利率已经讲了很多，很难讲投资者不能期待后半年美国的经济能够好转。这将有利于全球经济的增长。

您认为美元下跌在多大程度上反映了人们对美国经济缺乏信心？

这有其他的根本原因，比如预算赤字，这导致了过去五六年里美元价值的下跌，以及尤其是过去几年里美国经济提供的强大的增长动力。这两者并不是很匹配的，所以，谈到房屋市场下跌或者说爆炸，我并不认为这是缺乏信心的表现。所以我认为，美元的前景会好一些。

至今主权财富基金已经是美国金融公司的购买赌注，您认为弱美元是其中的一个原因吗？

当然了。我认为美元的价值、美元的直接价值使得这种投资很有吸引力。但是我认为那些跌了30%的银行证券对投资者相当有吸引力，特别是对海外投资者来说。所以这是个有晦气的前进，我认为我们和主权财富基金将会保持一段长期的投资关系，尤其是零售业投资者和大西洋这边的可能的大量机构投资者，他们正在抛出股票，我们可以在证券市场上看到投降的现象。

您认为今年美元将会在多大程度上转向坚挺？

我想是2008年一月份，也就是现在，美元将会走向拐点，这可能发生在证券市场和美元市场上。
whammy ['wæmi, 'hwæmi]

n. 晦气, 剧烈的打击