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Bank of England cuts rates

Kevin Gyateng of Corporate FX joins CNN to discuss the mortgage crisis in the U.S. and a rate cut from the Bank of England

First to the Bush plan. Oh, it does seem that it excludes more people than it includes?

That's right. I mean that if you look at who the plan's aimed at, it is really borrowers who are, seem to be solvent not more than thirty days behind payment or sixty days throughout the course of the year with regards to their payments. So I think the in(itial), the original indication that it will help about 1.2, or 1, over 1 million subprime borrowers seems to be a bit mislaid if you like. And I think if when the market digests the full implications of the plan, there may be a bit of a reassessment thanks to its reaction to it.

Oh, really, so, because we did see the markets rally yesterday. So you think that was just a knee-jerk reaction that we are seeing something.

You also, you always see a knee-jerk reaction. I think what the plan did suggest or does suggest is that the actual extent of the subprime fallout from foreclosures. I mean if foreclosures do accelerate through a resetting of mortgage rates. What that's likely to do is put further pressure on house prices which is good for nobody. Home builders or the consumer. So that the initial reaction is to say, hey, this is gonna actually stand that impact and it is seen as er, US positive. I think going forward, as the plan is actually further analyzed. I think the obstacle will be more evident.

And here in the UK, we saw interest rates cut yesterday. Now is this also a response to the credit crisis in a way?

I think more, it is, the credit crisis has backed a lot of central banks into a corner. I mean there's no doubt within the UK that we are seeing, we have seen a softening picture within the economy house prices are at falling floor three months in a row. I think that the consumer sentiment and consumer activities softened and zoomed out considerably. But I think most analysts were really expecting the Bank of England to start their interest rate cutting cycle towards the, at the start of next year. So to see the move this early does suggest that the credit market impact is, was a big factor.

It's one of the reasons that perhaps brought it forward a little bit.

Definitely, I mean , I think you can't discount the impact of the Northern Rock, er, fiasco. The Bank of England was, has been one of the least active in terms of providing liquidity in the face of this credit turmoil so, I think they don't want to give the impression that they weren't sensitive to what was going on in the banking sector.

Now to be proactive . And of course speaking of interest rates, what's gonna happen with the FED next week.

Well, I think a 25 basis point cut is being pretty priced in by the market and analysts have been, increasingly have been talking about a 50, 50 basis point cut. I think if you look at the situation in the US, we are still seeing little evidence from the actual real economy to justify rate cuts. All of these responses are definitely related to the credit market and what's happening within the financial sector. I think if we see a 25 basis point cut from the dollar's point of view because it has been pretty priced in. I don't see that as a dollar negative mood whereas if we do see a 50 basis point cut next week, that could lend a bit of pressure against the dollar.

Notes:

Fiasco: A complete failure

Knee-jerk reaction: an automatic response

文本参考中文翻译

Corporate FX的Kevin Gyateng来到CNN跟大家探讨美国次贷危机和英格兰银行降息的问题。

首先来谈一下布什的计划。好像排除在外的人要多于涉及到的人？

是的。我是说，如果你看一下该计划的目标人群，实际上在三十天之内有偿付能力，或者一年期60天之内有偿付能力的借贷者。所以我认为，最初说的该计划能够帮助120万人，或者说100多万次优级抵押贷款借贷者的说法似乎有点被误导了。我认为，如果市场能够消化掉该计划所有的含义，应该或多或少进行重新评估。

真的吗，那么，昨天我们都看到了市场有点好转。你认为会有什么样的下意识的反应呢？

你通常能看到下意识的反应。我认为该计划反映的是财产没收造成的次贷危机的余波的影响程度。这可能会对房产价格造成更大的压力，这对任何人都没有好处，无论是最开发商还是对消费者。所以，最初的反应是应该说，承受这种撞击。我认为随着时间的推移，随着对这个计划进行进一步分析，障碍会更加明显。

在英国，我们看到昨天央行降息。这也是对次贷危机的一种反应方式吗？

我认为要更多。次贷危机使很多国家的中央银行陷入困境。我的意思是，在英国，我们看到经济疲软，三个月来房产价格不断下跌。我认为，消费者的敏感度和积极性都随之不断消减或整张。但是我认为，许多分析家都预期英格兰银行将从明年年初开始降息。但是，现在我们就已经看到央行采取该举动，这说明次贷危机是一个很大的影响因素。

这可能是一个推动因素。

当然，我觉得不能忽视Northern Rock惨败的影响。英格兰银行在应对次贷危机提供偿付能力方面一直是最不积极的银行之一，我认为他们不想给人一种他们对银行产业现状不敏感的印象。

现在让我们提前预期一下。由于央行降息，下周FED情况会怎么样呢？

我认为，市场和分析家已经考虑到了降息25个基点的影响，他们甚至考虑到了50个基点的降息幅度。如果看一下美国的形势，我们还可以从实体经济中找到降息的证据。所有这些反应都与信贷市场和金融产业有关。我认为，如果我们降息25个基点，这些因素已经被市场考虑进去了。我认为，如果下周我们降息50个基点，美元不会有什么消极情绪，这不会对美元造成一定的压力。