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Another Fed rate cut on the way?

KPaul Donovan of UBS joins CNN to discuss the anticipation surrounding a Federal interest rate cut

A: The Fed has got to cut rates , there’s no question.

B: How much?

A: Er.. I think what we need to see is er, a process of cutting rates, so it’s less about how much today and about the, the holding up the hope of more rate cuts to come, what I’m expecting is a quarter point of the Fed funds rate today. Er, half of a percent of the emergency discount rate that’s where banks go when they are in difficulties. But clearly, a statement which says more is going to come. Don’t worry, guys, we’ll keep on cutting.

B: And what’s their key focus right now, is it trying to get the banks to er… reduce their inter-bank lending rate, is that the key focus right now?

A: That’s part of the process. Er… but it’s slightly wider than that , because of course what you’ve got at the moment is actually a monetary policy tightening. You’re a consumer, your interest rate hasn’t come down 3 quarters of a point along with the Fed funds rate. If you are a consumer, the chances are your interest rate's gone up because banks are tightening credit standards, and raising the cost that they pass on to the consumer. So what the Fed is concerned to do is to stop that process of monetary policy tightening.

B: And whatever the rates are , the other problem is the fact that the banks are just reducing their lending generally, and they don’t wanna lend to anyone with any sort of risky background, so that's gonna cause problem within itself. There is nothing the Fed can do about that, is there?

A: No, there is not much that the Fed can do about that. Er…, at the margin, we are, I think going to less credit, now, I’m, we can go back to Japan in the, in the 1990s, it doesn’t matter how much you cut rates. You cannot force banks to lend if they don’t want to. But in actual fact, one of the things that we’re concerned about is not so much new borrowers, but existing borrowers who’ve got adjustable rate debt er… where the interest rates go up and down, those are the guys who are vulnerable in this current environment, and the Fed's got to try and limit the damage to them. Because of course there are far more existing borrowers than there are potential new borrowers.

B: And you mentioned that the discount er.. rates which is the rate that the, you say that the banks go to the Feds asking for money if they really need it. Er… but that’s kind of epidemic, isn’t it? Because once people start using or once banks start using that facility, there is a huge stigma attached to that , so they are gonna avoid that , anyway, aren’ they?

A: Well, there is a stigma, and particularly here in the United Kingdom, er…borrowing from the Bank of England attaches a huge stigma. In the States it will…

B: Northern Rock was the classic example.

A: Precisely. In the United States it’s less so, and there has been more willingness to borrow from the discount window er in the United States. So,er…I think actually as the credits crisis of confidence continues, banks will get over the social stigma and recognize that, hold on, if here's someone prepared to lend his money. We might as well take advantage of it, and that will then help to at least smooth over some of the problems in the market...

Notes:

smooth over: To mitigate or alleviate

discount rate: The discount rate is the interest rate charged to commercial banks and other depository institutions on loans they receive from their regional Federal Reserve Bank's lending facility--the discount window.

文本参考中文翻译

A：美联储已经准备降息，这毫无疑问。

B：大概降低多少呢？

A：呃……我想，我们需要看到的是一个降息的过程，重要的不是今天降息多少，而是希望以后能有更多的降息过程，我预期今天大概降低0.25个联邦基金基点。在银行困难的时候曾经降低0.5个基点的贴现率。但是，很明显，根据声明所说，将会出现更多的降息。不要担心，利率还会继续降低的。

B：那么他们现在的主要焦点是什么呢，是不是要降低银行间拆借的利率，这是不是目前的焦点呢？

A：这是整个过程的一部分。呃……但是比这个范围要稍微广一些，因为现在你们获得的是银根紧缩政策。你是消费者，你的利率并没有降低0.75个基点。如果你是消费者，利率可能降低，因为银行方面紧缩了信贷标准，提高了接待给消费者的资金的成本。所以美联储现在应该做的是停止银根紧缩政策。

B：无论利率如何，另外一个问题是，银行现在减少了贷款，他们不想向任何具有风险背景的人提供贷款，所以这也会给银行内部造成问题。关于这一点，联邦储备也束手无策，是吗？

A：是的，美联储没有什么办法来应对这一点。我认为我们可以提供更少的信贷，可以回到上世纪90年代的日本，降低利率的幅度并不重要。如果银行不想提供贷款，你不能强迫他。但是实际上，我们担心的问题并不是新的借款者，而是现有的持有可调整利率贷款的客户……无论利率怎样调整，在现在的环境下总会有人受到伤害，美联储必须设法限制对他们造成的损害。因为现有的借款者肯定比潜在客户要多很多。

B：你提到贴现率，这是指如果银行需要资金可以向美联储申请。但是这是一种传染病，不是吗？因为一旦银行开始利用这个渠道，会对名声造成一定的影响，所以他们会尽量避免，对吗？

A：是的，是有一定的耻辱，尤其是在英国，尤其是向英格兰银行借款，这是一个巨大的耻辱。

BNorthern Rock银行就是一个典型的例子。

A：当然。在美国，没有那么严重，在美国，银行更希望能够从贴现窗口借款。我认为，随着信贷危机的持续，银行会克服这种社会性的车如感，会意识到，只要有人准备借款，他们就要坚持。我们也要充分利用这种优势，至少这样会稍微缓和一下市场上的问题……