Egypt after the coup
It isn’t over yet
A week after the military coup that overthrew Egypt’s elected Islamist president, the country remains dangerously divided
July 13th 2013
THE words “civil war” pepper many a conversation in Cairo in the wake of the military coup on July 3rd that ousted Muhammad Morsi, a Muslim Brother, after only a year in power. On July 8th the prospect of all-out strife loomed larger after the security forces in Cairo shot dead at least 50 people who had been demanding Mr Morsi’s reinstatement.
Egyptian society remains bitterly divided between a core of Brotherhood backers, who feel cheated, and the millions of people, including secular-minded and liberal Egyptians and quite a lot of religious ones, who wanted Mr Morsi to go. Above all, Egyptians need to agree on a plan to move the country back to democracy. On July 8th the judge appointed by the army as an interim president unveiled a brisk timetable for bringing in a new constitution and for parliamentary and presidential elections. It is bound, at best, to be a bumpy ride.
The opposition is still crowing over Mr Morsi’s demise. Voices calling for the vanquishing of “terrorists”, as the fiercer foes of the Muslim Brothers like to call them, seem louder than those calling for restraint and compromise. On the other side, Mr Morsi’s diehard disciples, fearing for their survival, refuse to consider anything less than his reinstatement, which the generals now in charge are sure to dismiss out of hand. Since July 3rd Mr Morsi’s people have continued to mass in districts of eastern Cairo, where their support is strongest, to protest against the overthrow of their democratically elected president.
The two sides also disagree over who was to blame for the shooting on July 8th outside the Republican Guard Club, where Mr Morsi was said to be held. The actions of the security forces seemed plainly disproportionate, at the least. The interim president, Adly Mansour, called for an inquiry without suggesting its terms, leaving the whiff of a would-be cover-up. The security forces have never hidden their hostility to the Brothers.
双方存在分歧的还有一点：谁该为7月8日发生共和国卫队俱乐部（Republican Guard Club）外的枪击案负责。据传，穆尔西当时就软禁于此。无论如何，守卫士兵的行为看上去显然是过分了。临时总统阿兹利•曼苏尔（Adly Mansour）下令调查此案，但他并没表达自己的立场（or 详细部署？），似乎有种想把案子压下去的意味。而安全部队从未掩饰过他们对穆兄会的敌意。
In response the Brotherhood’s leaders called for an uprising against the army and its head, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who launched the coup. The public prosecutor then issued arrest warrants for the organisation’s leaders, including its supreme guide, charging them with incitement to violence. Several hundred Brothers, including Mr Morsi, are behind bars, raising the spectre of Egypt’s “deep state”, as the security establishment is known, making a comeback.
作为回应，穆兄会的领导人号召民众起义，反对军方和发动政变的军方领导人——阿卜杜勒•法塔赫•西萨将军（General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi）。埃及检方随即对该组织领导（包括最高领导人在内）发出逮捕令，指控他们煽动暴乱。如今，包括穆尔西在内的几百名穆兄会成员锒铛入狱，恐惧的氛围已在酝酿，有着“暗深势力集团（deep state）”之名的国家安全部官员（穆巴拉克政权残余）似乎要卷土重来。
Keen to bring back stability and to persuade people that he sincerely wants to cede power as soon as possible, General Sisi moved fast to prod Mr Mansour into setting a rapid return to democracy. Along with his speedy timetable, the interim president issued a set of articles to replace the suspended constitution until a new one is drawn up. He gave ten lawyers a month to amend the constitution, to be reviewed within two months by 50 civil-society figures and put to a national referendum a month later. All being well, parliamentary elections would be followed by a presidential one early in the new year.
Mr Mansour also appointed Hazem al-Beblawi, a 77-year-old economist, as prime minister. Mohamed ElBaradei, a former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, who is now a leader of the secular opposition, has been appointed deputy president during the transition. Mr Beblawi has embarked on negotiations to form a cabinet of technocrats, promising posts to members of the Brotherhood and of the Salafists’ Nour party.
曼苏尔还任命77岁的经济学家——哈齐姆•贝卜拉维（Hazem al-Beblawi）为总理。前国际原子能机构（联合国核监督机构）总干事穆罕穆德•巴拉迪（Mohamed ElBaradei），如今作为世俗反对派领导人之一，被任命为过渡政府副总统。贝卜拉维为了组建一个由专家构成的内阁，已着手谈判。他承诺，将邀请穆兄会和萨拉菲斯特光明党（Salafists’ Nour）人士加入内阁。
The Brothers have so far rejected Mr Mansour’s proposals in their entirety. Since their senior members have been rounded up and their television stations shut down, they are in no mood for compromise. “All the elections we won have been thrown into the rubbish bin and we have been excluded from the political process, so why would we accept this?” asks Abdullah al-Keryoni, a youth member of the Brotherhood, protesting outside Cairo’s Rabea al-Adawiya mosque.
目前为止，穆兄会拒绝了曼苏尔的全部提议。自从他们的资深成员被捕、电视台遭关闭，穆兄会是没心情妥协的。“我们赢得的所有选举都遭人唾弃，政治议程也没我们参加的份儿，既然这样，我们凭什么要接受？“年轻的穆兄会成员阿布达拉哈•阿克约尼（Abdullah al-Keryoni）在开罗拉比亚• 阿达维亚（Rabea al-Adawiya）清真寺外抗议时问道。
Meanwhile, the National Salvation Front, a grouping of liberal opposition parties under Mr ElBaradei’s co-chairmanship, said Mr Mansour had not consulted it before making his declaration and would suggest changes. Tamarod (Rebellion), the youth movement that led the protests to oust Mr Morsi, also criticised the sweeping powers reserved for Mr Mansour. And liberals nervously noted the reaffirmation in the interim president’s statement that sharia should be the basis of law, presumably as an inducement to bring the Islamists back into peaceful politics. The Nour party, which had distanced itself from the Brotherhood after the coup, also objected to the content of Mr Mansour’s proclamation.
与此同时，由巴拉迪与他人共同领导的自由派反对党联盟“埃及救国阵线（National Salvation Front）”表示，曼苏尔在发布声明前并没征求他们的意见。联盟将针对该声明提交一些修改建议。发起抗议、罢黜穆尔西的新兴反叛组织塔马洛德（Tamarod），也谴责曼苏尔不应拥有这么大的权利。自由派人士则心有不安，他们注意到，临时总统在声明中再三强调法律应以伊斯兰教法为基础。这似乎会诱使伊斯兰主义者重新打破和平政治的局面。光明党自从政变起，就与穆兄会划清界限。而他们也反对曼苏尔声明中的规定。
So further clashes are likely. Ahmed el-Tayeb, the grand imam of the al-Azhar mosque and rector of the university of the same name, who is by tradition the leading authority of Sunni Islam, has called for more serious efforts to reconcile the main camps and has warned that Egypt could be heading towards civil war. “The Muslim Brotherhood will adopt self-restraint as a strategy because they know violence allows their opponents to frame them as terrorists,” says Khalil Anani, an Egyptian expert in Islamist movements. “But they may not be able to rein in young members.” The killing of a Coptic priest and violence in Sinai suggest that other groups are keen to stir up trouble.
If the army can reimpose order on the streets with little more bloodshed and start meeting its promises to restore democracy, it will also have to set about rescuing the country’s shattered economy as a matter of extreme urgency. On July 9th Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, pleased to see Mr Morsi go, offered up to $12 billion in cash, deposits and oil—more than the amount given to Mr Morsi by Qatar, his chief financier, during his year-long stint in power. Big business has broadly rallied to the new regime.
But the generals, who performed dismally during their period as caretakers after Mr Mubarak’s fall two-and-a-half years ago, know that millions may come out onto the streets again if they do not move faster and more cleverly than they did before. As street demonstrations subside, Egyptians are holding their breath.