CATTI二级口译精讲第52讲讲义

口译课文 Text for Interpretation

The irresistible lure of China as a global production base will receive another boost from the removal of more trade barriers following the country's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).1 While low production costs has long been the main advantage of setting up global-scale manufacturing plants in China, the benefits have been curtailed by trade barriers and frequent conflicts among trading partners.

This sort of friction should be subdued under WTO surveillance, boosting trade flows between China and the rest of the world. China's share of the global market has constantly risen in the past two decades, irrespective of the state of the global economy, reflecting the country's competitive edge in production.

Among the boons derived from WTO entry will be the opening of China's vast domestic market, providing a further incentive for foreign companies to base their plants in what will one day be the world's biggest domestic economy. From a logistics perspective, China is an ideal location for large-scale manufacturing plants where the ideal balance between distribution costs and economies of scale can be realized.2 WTO entry will underline China's status as the number one Asian location for production.

Foreign funds have long played an important role in expanding China's manufacturing base. Foreign-invested firms' share of production/exports has risen substantially in the past two decades.

This accelerating inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) will continue to provide the main impetus behind China's transformation into a global production base. According to United Nations Commission on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates, FDI into China will reach US$60 billion per year after WTO entry, rising to US$100 billion if full foreign ownership of local firms is allowed3.

These estimates are not groundless, as shown by the 40-50% surge in contracted FDI since the Sino-US agreement on WTO entry was signed.4 Although the formal entry date remains undetermined (the latest estimate is 2001), foreign businesses are highly optimistic that China will succeed. This is reflected by the pickup in contracted FDI, which rebounded strongly from a decline in 2000 to a 21.3% rise in January.5

A recent survey covering the 1,000 biggest businesses in the world ranked China second only to the US as a destination for investment in 2001. This reinforces the UN's suggestion that China will see a boom in FDI after WTO entry. In fact, the country so far has received more than US$300 billion in FDI on a cumulative basis, more than the aggregate for the rest of Asia.

The shift of Taiwan's manufacturing to the mainland will have a profound impact on the island's economic development. Like Hong Kong in the 1980s, shifting the manufacturing base across the strait implies an inevitable transition in Taiwan's economy to a higher value-added output structure. Hong Kong chose to evolve into a service-oriented economy, but which direction will Taiwan take?

Given that Taiwan's financial sector development remains well behind that of Hong Kong, its progress will face severe external competition once the domestic market opens up further. In retrospect, Hong Kong was fortunate in its transformation to a service economy as competition was relatively subdued then. Moreover, there will be substantial political resistance to Taiwan's transformation as it implies full integration with, as well as total reliance on, the mainland for economic advancement.

Though it is difficult to envisage Taiwan's transformation towards a full service-oriented structure, FDI trends suggest that the island's economy could take such a direction. The share of FDI in service-based industries such as banking has increased rapidly in recent years. This, of course, is associated with Taiwan's moves to liberalize the domestic financial and telecommunication industries. Nevertheless, with the gradual shift of local manufacturing to the mainland, Taiwan faces strong economic pressure to pursue a more viable structure.

Taiwan is likely to focus primarily on high-tech production, drawing on its strong R&D capability and a large pool of expertise in the field. A gradual expansion of the service sector will also take place. While Taiwan is far from being a threat to Hong Kong in financial and professional services6, the transportation and logistics businesses could face fewer obstacles to development and compete with neighboring centers.

Though a shift towards more service elements is likely, we do not expect a complete hollowing-out of Taiwanese industry. A closer parallel may be Japan's direct investment in the Asian region over the 1990s. Today, Japan remains relatively strong in manufacturing, and the threat of hollowing-out has proved unfounded.

The difference between Hong Kong and Taiwan in terms of integration with China is evident in the strong ongoing investment in Taiwan's domestic industries, particularly foreign investment. The island's electronic industry has been upgraded to more advanced and higher value-added production, whereas Hong Kong saw a complete divestment. Taiwan's inward direct investment grew strongly in 2000, with the electronic industry remaining the largest beneficiary. While a complete hollowing-out of local industry appears highly unlikely, a restructuring of Taiwan's economy as a result of further integration with the mainland is inevitable.

Taiwan's economic integration with the mainland will create challenges and problems for three economies7 (including Hong Kong), but the potential gains, as proved by the case of Hong Kong, are tremendous. While the mainland will benefit from an upgraded industrial structure – moving from light industrial products to more advanced electronic components and computer products/accessories – Taiwan should be revitalized by shifting to higher value-added sectors as the economy matures. Although the transformation process will see structural problems such as persistently high unemployment and the need for heavy reinvestment in new sectors, its completion will unleash a huge wave of growth momentum.

Hong Kong is likely to face some challenges if Taiwan rapidly opens up its domestic sector, particularly its finance industry. Following China's entry to the WTO, the accession of Taiwan to the global trade club is also imminent. Not only will Taiwan's trade and investment in the mainland accelerate as restrictive practices are removed, its market will also be opened, making a successful economic transformation more likely.

Taiwan's finance industry enjoys the strong backing of its robust manufacturing industry across the strait, while Hong Kong is gradually losing out, as more manufacturers rely on RMB loans offered by mainland banks. This explains the deviation between a strong export-led recovery in Hong Kong and sluggish domestic commercial loan growth. Hong Kong banks can only recapitalize the market after establishing their RMB business in the mainland.

口译讲评 Comments on Interpretation

1.“The irresistible lure of China as a global production base will receive another boost from the removal of more trade barriers following the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).” 在翻译本句前，首先要理清几个主要语义成分的先后顺序和逻辑关系，从时间和因果关系看，应该首先是“accession to WTO”，然后是“removal of barriers”，最后才是“boost”，按这个顺序来译，就很清楚了。其次，在具体落实的时候，还要进行适当的句法转换，将名词“accession”译为动词，分词短语转换为分句，因此全句可译为：“在中国加入世界贸易组织之后，随着更多贸易壁垒的消除，中国将成为全球性生产基地这个不可逆转的趋势，将进一步得到巩固”。
2.“China is an ideal location for large-scale manufacturing plants where the ideal balance between distribution costs and economies of scale can be realized.” 此句中“where”引导的地点状语从句实际是要表达一种因果关系，因为“ideal balance can be realized”，所以才是“ideal location”。为了使译文的表达更清楚，可以添加因果关系连词，译为：“中国是建立大规模制造工厂的理想之地，因其在产品分销费用和规模经济两方面有理想的平衡。”
3.“FDI into China will reach US$60 billion per year after WTO entry, rising to US$100 billion if full foreign ownership of local firms is allowed.” 此句言简意赅，尤其是后面的现在分词短语，包含了好几层意思。为表达清楚，并符合汉语语言习惯，应首先进行句法转换，将分词短语转换为句子。其次，“if full foreign ownership of local firms is allowed”是被动语态，与英文相比，汉语中很少用被动语态，所以处理时，要尽量变被动为主动，并补出行为者。综上，此句可译为：“在中国加入世贸组织后，中国的外来直接投资将达到每年600亿美元。如果内地允许外国独资并购内地公司的话，中国的外来直接投资将达到每年1000亿美元。”
4.“These estimates are not groundless, as shown by the 40-50% surge in contracted FDI since the Sino-US agreement on WTO entry was signed.” 与上例一样，此句语言虽简洁，但内涵丰富，有好几个层次，“not groundless”，“shown”，“surge”，“agreement”。 为了表达清楚，可以在翻译时进行句法转换，把“by the 40-50% surge in contracted FDI”另立为一句，作为补充说明，译为：“这些估计并不是没有根据的，这可从中美签署有关中国加入世贸组织的协议以后，已签定的外来直接投资数额中体现出来。截止到目前为止，外来直接投资已经获得40～50%的增长。”
5.“This is reflected by the pickup in contracted FDI, which rebounded strongly from a decline in 2000 to a 21.3% rise in January.” 此句中“pickup”和“rebound”实际是同义重复，可以省略“pickup”，以从句来说明情况即可。译为：“这可以由已投入的外来直接投资数额中反映出来，外来直接投资从2000年的下降状态，出现强力反弹，在2001年增长了21.3%”。
6.“While Taiwan is far from being a threat to Hong Kong in financial and professional services, ⋯” 此句直译是“台湾在⋯⋯方面远不能对香港构成威胁”，略显突兀，可补充一点解释成分，译为：“由于台湾在金融和专业服务方面远远落后于香港，而不会对香港构成威胁，⋯⋯”。
7.“three economies”直译为“三种经济”，这里实际就是指中国大陆、香港和台湾，为使译文更地道，可采用中文习语“两岸三地”。

篇章译文:

在中国加入世界贸易组织之后，随着更多贸易壁垒的消除，中国将成为全球性生产基地这个不可逆转的趋势，将进一步得到巩固。虽然长久以来低生产成本已经成为在中国建立大规模制造企业的主要有利条件，但这个优势却由于贸易障碍和贸易伙伴间的频繁冲突而有所削弱。

这类摩擦将在世界贸易组织的监督下减少，从而推动中国和世界其他国家之间的贸易流通。在过去的二十年中，不论全球经济的状况如何，中国贸易在世界市场所占的份额还是一直在增长，这反映了中国在生产上的竞争优势。

中国加入世贸组织的其中一个好处就是中国国内市场的大规模开放，进一步鼓励外国公司在中国建立生产设施，因为中国将是拥有全世界最大的国内经济市场的国家。从物流的角度来讲，中国是建立大规模制造企业的理想之地，因其在产品分销费用和规模经济两方面有理想的平衡。加入世贸组织将会加强中国作为亚洲第一生产基地的地位。

长久以来，外来资金对于扩大中国制造业基地起着重要的作用。在过去的二十年中，外资公司在中国的生产/出口份额有显著的增长。

外来直接投资的加速流入，将继续为中国转变为全球生产基地提供主要动力。据联合国贸易和发展委员会的估计，在中国加入世贸组织后，中国的外来直接投资将达到每年600亿美元。如果内地允许外国独资并购内地公司的话，中国的外来直接投资将达到每年1000亿美元。

这些估计并不是没有根据的，这可从中美签署有关中国加入世贸组织的协议以后，已签定的外来直接投资数额中体现出来。截止到目前为止，外来直接投资已增长了40～50%。虽然中国加入世贸组织的正式日期还没有确定（最新估计为2001年下半年），外国企业对于中国的成功入关抱着非常乐观的态度。这可以由已投入的外来直接投资数额中反映出来，外来直接投资从2000年的下降状态，出现强力反弹，在2001年增长了21.3%。

新近一项研究对全球1000个最大的企业作了调查，结果指出中国仅次于美国成为2001年排名第二的投资目的地。这加强了联合国关于中国入关后外来直接投资将出现热潮的看法。实际上，到目前为止，中国已经接受了累积超过3000亿美元的外来直接投资，比亚洲所有其他国家的合计总额还要多。

台湾的制造业向中国大陆的转移，将给台湾岛的经济发展带来深远的影响。与香港在二十世纪八十年代一样，将制造业的基地转移到海峡对岸的中国大陆，意味着台湾的经济不可避免地要向一种更高的增值生产结构转变。香港选择发展以服务业为导向的经济，但是，台湾的经济模式将向何方发展呢？

因为台湾的金融业发展远远落后于香港，一旦台湾的岛内市场进一步开放，它的发展将会面临严峻的外来竞争。当然，香港在竞争相对比较轻微的情况下，将经济模式转为服务导向型，算是比较幸运的。此外，台湾经济模式的转变将会遇到严峻的政治阻力，因为它意味着台湾要谋求经济的进步，就得实现与中国大陆的完全一体化，完全依赖大陆。

尽管很难想象台湾的经济模式会向一种完全服务导向型的结构发展，外来直接投资的趋势却显示台湾岛的经济正趋向这样的形式。外来直接投资在以服务为基础的行业（如银行业）的份额，近年来有了迅速的增长。当然，这也与台湾放宽岛内金融和通讯工业的举动有关。然而，随着当地制造业向中国大陆的逐步转化，台湾在探求一种更加可行的经济结构过程中，将会面临巨大的经济压力。

基于台湾强大的研究和开发能力，以及拥有在该领域的大量专门人才及技术，可能会重点发展高科技产业，而服务业亦会同时逐步发展。由于台湾在金融和专业服务方面远远落后于香港，而不会对香港构成威胁，但台湾在运输业和物流商业方面的发展，相信阻力会更少，因而有能力与邻近的经济中心竞争。

尽管台湾可能向服务行业转化，我们并不相信因此会将台湾的工业彻底地挖空。类似的例子就是日本在二十世纪九十年代向亚洲地区的大量直接投资，现今日本在制造业方面还是比较强大的，从而证明工业空洞化威胁的说法是毫无根据的。

就与中国大陆的经济融合而言，香港与台湾的明显差异在于台湾正在对岛内工业进行大投资，尤其是外来投资。台湾岛的电子工业已提升为更加先进的、更高附加值的产品，而香港在这方面则是彻底放弃。外国在台湾的直接投资在2000年增长迅猛，其中电子工业仍然是最大的得益者。虽然台湾本地工业不大可能会出现彻底的挖空，但由于台湾经济与大陆经济的进一步融合，对于台湾经济的结构调整还是不可避免的。

台湾与中国大陆的经济融合将对两岸三地（包括香港的经济）带来挑战和机遇，上面所述的香港经济转型便是一个实例。中国大陆将从产业结构升级中受益，由轻工业产品转变为更加先进的电子元件以及计算机产品/附件。而台湾现已饱和的经济，随着向更高附加值的产业转化，将能重新获得发展的活力。尽管在台湾经济的转化过程中，可能会遇到结构方面的问题，比如持久性的高失业率，以及新建部门中所需要的巨大的再投资，但最终都会因此而释放出极大的经济动力。

如果台湾迅速开放它的内部市场，尤其是它的金融业的话，香港将可能面临某些挑战。在中国加入世贸组织之后，台湾紧随加入的日期也将逼近。在那些限制性的做法取消以后，不仅台湾在中国大陆的贸易和投资将加速增长，而且，它本身的市场也将会开放，使其更加有可能成功地实现经济结构的转型。

台湾的金融业受惠于其在大陆蓬勃发展的制造业强大的支持，而香港由于越来越多的制造商依赖中国大陆银行提供的人民币贷款，从而丧失其金融业的发展动力。这就解释了为什么香港会出现两种力量背道而驰的局面，一方面强劲的出口拉动了经济复苏，而另一方面商业贷款增长停滞。香港银行只有通过在中国大陆建立起它们的人民币业务之后，才能重现活力。