科学美国人60秒:足球守门员扑救点球忽略概率基本规则
日期:2014-08-26 15:20

(单词翻译:单击)

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中英文本

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Imagine you're a soccer goalie.
想象你是一位足球守门员j,Kr,ajlRhGFJJ
Your opponent gets ready to take a penalty kick.
你的对手已经准备好踢点球y..[&Ql~.94
You're crouched in front of the net.
你已经在门前严阵以待;Y6_CvIShkfG%D4opWK
The past three kickers have aimed to your left.
刚才的3名主罚者都是瞄准你的左边c0,P3iKYb7Yh
So which way do you dive?
所以你准备扑哪边?
If you said “right,” you'd be in good company.
如果你说“右边”,你还算不错的门将=G*=kE.h!V[%]

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Because when penalty shots repeatedly head in one direction, world-class goalkeepers are more likely to lunge the other way.
因为当点球都是反复瞄准同一方向,世界级的守门员更容易朝另一边扑救d-46@q[gdjGKfil
That's according to a study in the journal Current Biology.
这是根据《当代生物学》杂志上一项研究得出的结论~=q0G]Zqrhc6sBE.fF
This form of misconception—that a string of rights is bound to be broken by a left—is also common in casinos, so much so that it's called the “gambler's fallacy.”
这种一连串的右边势必会被一个左边打破形式的错觉,在赌场也是屡见不鲜,以至于它被称为 “赌徒谬论”F%E(j7421awz4^5
At the roulette wheel, for example, bettors tend to back black after seeing a run of reds.
例如在轮盘赌中,赌徒们看到一连串的红色后往往支持黑色0qr8T2F!t;)e
“We're due for a black,” the thinking goes.
“接下来就该是黑色了+GY.fb)#zy。”人们总是这样考虑mPYPZgwQCU
But in reality, the roulette ball is still equally likely to land on either color.
但在现实中,轮盘赌球仍然可能在红黑中二择其一Zr[~*p%6byD]
And despite what netminders might think, the same is true for penalty kicks.
然而守门员们可能认为这种观点同样适用于罚点球n)O5Z*!Kz!hcd
In fact, researchers studying 36 years' worth of World Cup and Euro Cup finals found that the direction of penalty shots is basically a coin-flip.
事实上,通过研究36年来的世界杯和欧洲杯决赛研究人员发现罚球的方向基本上跟抛硬币的概率一样8LZ0pEnr8nn;,
Ah, but if kickers in the next World Cup were to take advantage of the goalie falling for the gambler's fallacy, they could really get a leg up.
啊,但如果在下一届世界杯上罚球者利用守门员赌徒谬论的观点,他们或许会全罚全中=G;B^*i%cE]HfUXOY1S
词语解释

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1.penalty kick 罚点球,罚球

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Child's play for Gyan, who twice in the tournament had scored on a penalty kick. He stared down Muslera, then stroked the ball solidly.
对于吉安来说,罚点球轻而易举,他在本届世界杯上也已命中两记点球j8wuOm.(sNB;RhClS。他盯着穆斯莱拉,然后用力一脚将球踢了出去b&d31G_G4]6

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Some words of wisdom to soccer players this week who find themselves in the precarious position of needing to make a penalty kick: Shoot high and aim right.
本周如果有哪个球队发现自己处境危险,需要用点球来弥补,这里给他们一点忠告:踢高些,往右瞄5r%d9WNbw6d[jOYjHJ

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2.aim to 计划,打算

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I don't aim to hurt you.
我并没打算伤害你%C7dSV|NB(d+LN&

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I aim to instill in them the pleasure of giving.
我的目的在于灌输给他们给予的乐趣[,0S-Mh8,=

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3.bound to 一定会;束缚于

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This scandal is bound to tell against him in the coming presidential election.
在即将到来的总统竞选中这一丑闻必然对他不利H(U=(-f#Pd

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He could draw men round him and keep them bound to him; while his powerful attraction was there, disruption was out of the question.
他能够把人们吸引到他的周围而且保持他们的忠心;而他的强大吸引力所在之处,就不可能有分裂3;X#(h_4da

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重点单词
  • opponentn. 对手,敌手,反对者 adj. 敌对的,反对的
  • penaltyn. 处罚,惩罚
  • precariousadj. 不确定的,不安全的
  • misconceptionn. 误解,错误想法
  • tournamentn. 比赛,锦标赛,(中世纪的)骑士比武
  • currentn. (水、气、电)流,趋势 adj. 流通的,现在的,
  • advantagen. 优势,有利条件 vt. 有利于
  • scandaln. 丑闻,中伤,反感,耻辱
  • gamblern. 赌徒
  • fallacyn. 谬论