演讲稿

Thank you. In these lectures, I have offered a conceptual framework for a better understanding of human events. These events are not determined by timelessly valid scientific laws. Such laws exist, of course, but they are not sufficient to determine the course of events. The complexity of the situations is one reason, and the role of the participants' thinking is another.
谢谢大家。在这个系列讲座中，我为更好地理解人类活动设计了一个 概念性的框架。这些活动并不是由永恒不变的正确的科学定律所决定的。当然，这种定律的确存在，但它们还不足以主宰活动的进程。原因之一是环境的复杂性，而参与者思维的作用是其另一个原因。
I have focused on the reflective, two-way connection between the participants' thinking and reality, and I emphasized the causal role that misunderstandings and misconceptions play in shaping reality. But these influences have been strangely ignored. They introduce an element of uncertainty into the subject matter which, except in the simplest situations, make it impossible to predict the future.
我重点解释了参与者的思维与现实之间反射性的双向联系。我强调了错误理解和错误概念在塑造现实中所起的因果作用。但这些影响都被人们莫名其妙地忽略掉了，而正是这些影响，给事物掺入了一些不确定因素。因此，除了极其简单的情况外，预测未来变得不太可能。
One can still sketch out various plausible scenarios and evaluate their likelihood. One can also prescribe desirable outcomes, I have done both, many times. Indeed, I can claim to be a specialist in it, focusing on predictions as an investor and prescriptions as a philanthropist I have been successful enough in the former to be able to afford the latter. I should like to devote today's discussion to this dual task.
但我们依然可以拟定出各种可能的方案并对其进行可行性评估，也可以采取措施，达到我们想要的结果。我在这两方面都已经尝试了很多次。的确，我可以说自己很在行。作为投资者，我善于预测；作为公益慈善家，我主要为问题提供解决方案；作为投资者，我很成功，并能够借此支持我的慈善活动。那么今天的演讲，我就想从这两个方面来展开。

重点讲解+名人简历

重点讲解：
1. two-way
双行的；双向的；
eg. The bridge is now open to two-way traffic.
这座桥现已双向通车了。
eg. Two-way trade between the two countries increased by more than forty per cent last year.
去年，两国间的双向贸易增长了 40% 多。
2. sketch out
概述；简述；
eg. Luxembourg sketched out an acceptable compromise between Britain, France and Germany.
卢森堡草拟了一项英国、法国和德国之间都可以接受的妥协方案。
eg. Such ideas help sketch out a plan.
这些想法可以勾勒出一个计划。
3. devote to
将（文章或讲话的某一部分）专用（于）；
eg. He devoted a major section of his massive report to an analysis of US aircraft design.
在他的长篇报告中，他用了很大的篇幅来分析美国飞机的设计。
eg. Page upon page is devoted to the chain of events leading to the Prime Minister's resignation.
一页又一页的篇幅都用来描述导致首相辞职的一连串事件。

背景资料：
2009年10月，在持续一周的时间里，乔治·索罗斯（George Soros）在位于匈牙利布达佩斯的中欧大学（Central European University）发表了共分五个部分的系列演讲，阐述了他对危机中的金融市场、政治体制和开放社会的思考与主张。在第五日的演讲“未来的路”中，他着重探讨了金融危机将如何重塑中国与世界的关系，以及由中国代表的“国家资本主义”模式的未来等问题。

名人经典：
As China is becoming a world leader, it must learn to pay more attention to the opinion of the rest of the world. But all this may be happening too fast for the Chinese leadership to adjust to it Hopefully, the Chinese leadership will rise to the occasion. It is no exaggeration to say that the future of the world depends on it.
随着中国世界领袖地位的确立，中国必须学会更多地关注其他国家的看法。但所有这些可能都来得太快，使中国领导人很难调整和适应。希望中国领导人能够对此应付自如。毫不夸张地说，世界的未来依赖于中国。