This is Scientific American — 60-Second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata.
In President Trump's June 1st speech withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord, he claimed the climate agreement was costing American workers. In a whole lot of ways: "In terms of lost jobs, lower wages, shuttered factories, and vastly diminished economic production."
Of course, doing nothing about climate change is also an option. But what is the economic price...of that choice? A team of economists and scientists set out to answer that question, by linking up economic and climate models to estimate how much warming temperatures could cost the U.S. economy.
And they found that for every degree Celsius the temperature goes up? It docks the U.S. gross domestic product, the GDP, by 1.2 percent.
But that economic penalty will not be evenly applied. Because the southern U.S. is already much poorer than the northern U.S. today. Oh, and it's hotter, too. "You know, if you're already a really hot location, heating up is really harmful." Solomon Hsiang, an economist at UC Berkeley. "Going from 70 to 75 isn't nearly as bad as going from 90 to 95."
Add in more hurricane damage, smaller crop yields, lost jobs, an increase in death and disease—and the analysis finds that climate change could eat up 20 percent of the poorest counties' income by the end of the century.
"Effectively we're harming the poorer populations and in some cases we're actually helping the relatively wealthier northern populations. So this means that climate change can actually increase inequality within the United States." The study is in the journal Science.
Warming temperatures probably won't help President Trump reach his forecasted three percent growth rate for the U.S. economy, either. "You know, this is essentially gonna slow down the growth rate gradually." In other words: it won't be a good climate for negotiation.
Thanks for listening for Scientific American — 60-Second Science Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata.
6月1日，特朗普总统宣布美国将退出《巴黎气候协定》，他在演讲中称该气候协定会让美国工人付出代价 。代价涉及很多方面：“失业、降低收入、关闭工厂以及大幅减少经济产出 。”
当然，对气候变化不采取任何措施也是一种选择 。但这种选择的经济代价是什么？一个由经济学家和科学家组成的小组开始着手解决这个问题，他们通过将经济和气候模型联系起来，来估算气候变暖可能会对美国经济造成的影响 。
但这种经济惩罚不会平均分配 。因为目前美国南部已经比美国北部穷很多了 。而且，美国南部也更热 。“你知道，如果一个地区已经很热了，那气温继续升高会带来危害 。”加州大学伯克利分校的经济学家索罗门·哈兴说道，“气温从70华氏度上升到75华氏度并不像从90华氏度升到95华氏度那样糟糕 。”
“实际上，我们正在伤害较贫困群体，在某些情况下，我们在帮助相对富裕的北方人 。这意味着气候变化实际上会加剧美国内部的不平等 。”这项研究结果发表在《科学》期刊上 。
温度升高可能也不能帮助特朗普总统实现让美国经济增长3%的承诺 。“你知道，这实际上会逐渐减缓经济增长率 。”换句话说，这不是能协商的问题 。
谢谢大家收听科学美国人——60秒科学 。我是克里斯托弗·因塔利亚塔 。
1. set out 开始；着手；
例句：He set out in search of ideas for starting a company of his own.
2. heat up 变热；
例句：If it is too hot or too cold, we burn calories to cool down or heat up.
3. add in 加入；把…算在内；
例句：Add in anticipated growth from price increases and 2% to 3% unit volume increases and you can expect to earn 9% to 10%, Stephen argues.
4. slow down (使)放慢；(使)减速；
例句：The threat of global warming will eventually force the US to slow down its energy consumption.