This is Scientific American — 60-Second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata.
Donald Trump hasn't been running the most traditional campaign. And it's not just the unfiltered tweets. "He's neglecting campaigning full stop." Thomas Wood, an assistant professor of political science at Ohio State. "He's had about half as many public events as his opponent."
Wood's own campaign experience was with the Romney/Ryan ticket back in 2012. Every night, the campaign surveyed thousands of voters... 64,000 over all... asking them how they felt about the politicians, after a local visit. That is, if the voters actually knew about the visit.
"Instead of seeing candidate X visiting somewhere in Pensacola they're now seeing candidate X visit somewhere in their local market. And it's not really filtering through to that many folks that the visit was there—you know one event sort of looks like the other. They all sort of blend into each other. It's hard to make it clear to the person who's just watching the evening news that this was a visit in your local marketplace."
In other words, visits didn't even register for most locals or those in adjacent markets. And the voters' opinions of the candidates went up just a measly couple percent after local visits—before fading back to baseline a few days later. So despite the huge investment of time and money, the local campaign stops were pretty worthless—at least from a numbers standpoint. The findings are in the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science.
As for this election season—any advice for the noncampaigning candidate? "I would provide advice that has nothing to do with his frequency of visits. I'd be providing advice as to how one comports oneself with the national press, try to earn some goodwill. I guess just being polite. I would say that Trump's sort of lethargic process of campaigning is probably the least of his worries." Better, he says, to just spend more time fundraising. To throw more cash at things that really work: like get-out-the-vote campaigns, and ads. Then again…Twitter's free.
Thanks for listening for Scientific American — 60-Second Science Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata.
唐纳德·特朗普没有用最传统的竞选方法组织竞选活动 。这并不是仅指他未经过滤的推文 。“他完全忽视了这是总统竞选演讲 。”托马斯·伍德是俄亥俄州立大学政治学的助理教授 。“特朗普的公共活动只有其对手的一半 。”
伍德曾在2012年跟随罗姆尼和瑞安的竞选团队进行竞选活动 。当时，竞选团队每天晚上都要调查数千名选民，调查人数可能高达6.4万人，在政治家走访当地后询问选民对他们的看法 。前提是选民知道当地的竞选活动 。
“某位候选人没有前往彭萨科拉的某个地方，而是去到当地的市场 。对许多人来说，去哪里访问都一样，因为竞选活动看起来差不多 。这些活动会互相融合 。对正在看晚间新闻的人来说，很难弄清楚新闻里的人正在当地市场进行访问 。”
换言之，对大多数当地人或是临近市场的大多数居民来说，这些访问并没有记录 。在当地访问结束后，选民对候选人的意见只会带来可怜的几个百分点的上涨，而几天后支持率又会退回到基准线 。所以，尽管投入了大量的资金和时间，地方竞选活动其实并没有什么价值——至少从数据来看可以这么说 。该研究结果发表在《美国政治和社会科学学院年报》上 。
就今年的竞选季来说，对没有进行竞选活动的候选人有什么建议？“我提供的建议可能与他们的竞选频率没有任何关系 。我的建议是：候选人若想让自己的形象同国家新闻报道的相一致，那就努力去获得信誉 。我认为候选人要有礼貌 。我想说，特朗普有些昏沉的竞选过程可能是他最不担心的 。”他说，最好将更多时间花费在筹集资金上 。将钱用到真正有用的地方：比如动员投票活动、广告等 。当然还有免费的推特 。
谢谢大家收听科学美国人——60秒科学 。我是克里斯托弗·因塔利亚塔 。
1. instead of 代替…；而不是…；
例句：He should have shot instead of passing.
2. blend into 融入；与…融为一体；与…协调；
例句：I tried to blend into the crowd, but I was obviously not dressed for the occasion.
3. in other words 换言之；换句话说；也就是说；
例句：In other words, the quality of the candidates was the decisive factor.
4. as for 至于…；
例句：As for his moral character, he is also praiseworthy.