听力文本

in 2000
在2000年
I think particularly in 2000
尤其是在2000年
you saw the elderly votes shifting a bit in the Democratic direction
你发现老年选民的选票有一点偏向民主党的方向
and many people attributed that to the concern over social security
很多人将这种现象归因于老人们对社会安全的考虑
as far as minority's level the African American voting population with substantially Republican after the Civil War
至于少数人种选民的倾向 黑人在南北战争之后 一直大比例地支持共和党
of course in the south Blacks lost their right to vote
当然了 在南部 黑人被剥夺了投票权
but they remained
但他们仍然坚持
Blacks in the north remained Republican voting
北部有投票权的黑人仍支持共和党
really until the New Deal really changed that
直到罗斯福新政的实施 改变了这种局面
as Franklin Roosevelt came up with policies
罗斯福在新政时期实施了很多政策

what not at all geared towards African Americans
虽然这些政策并非为了黑人的利益而制定
but they did benefit from those New Deal policies
但他们的确从新政政策中受益了
and then massive shift in African American voting to the Democrats with the Voting Rights Act of 1964
此后黑人对民主党人的支持在1964年选举权法案颁布后 再次大幅度攀升
and it's been that way ever since
从此奠定黑人倾向民主党人的格局
but then getting the African American candidate bumped up from 80% to 95% or whatever it was
对于黑人候选人支持率甚至会从80%左右飙升到95% 大概就是这样
Hispanic vote is very interesting
葡西裔的投票情况也很有意思
because Republican strategists were really looking at the Hispanic vote
共和党的战略家认为 他们应把注意力放在葡西裔的选票上
George Bush's first election 2000 heavily calling Hispanic voters
乔治布什2000年的第一次竞选中 对葡西选民尤为重视
and did much better than they had before
在葡西选民中 获得了比以前更理想的支持率
now support for the Republicans among the Hispanic populations has dropped down to about 1/3
但现在葡西裔对共和党人的支持 比当时已下降了约1/3
couple of things going on here
这其中有好几个原因
one is probably well south Florida is unique
第一个是佛州南部的历史特殊性
you have the Cuban population which had been so heavily Republican voting
那里居住着很多古巴裔居民 他们过去极为支持共和党
but the children and grandchildren of the Cuban refugees are not nearly as ready to the Republican Party
但这些古巴难民的儿女或子孙一带 则不如他们那么倾向共和党
I believe the young Cuban Americans voted for Obama
我想应该很多年轻的古巴裔这次都支持奥巴马
I have to check that
我要查证一下是不是这样
elsewhere though lots of concerns about Nativism in the Republican Party
而在其他地区 葡西裔可能会对共和党的排外主义感到担忧
many elements of the Republican Party pushing for much stricter immigration loss
共和党的很多表现使得他们丢失了移民群体的选票
and that has turned many Hispanics off from the Republican Party
这其中当然包括葡西裔共和党的支持
that's a standard interpretation
我想这是一个一般性的解释

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。