听力文本

yes
请提问
ok a great question
很好的问题
how much if this is a momentary
这些转变有多少是短暂的
how much if it is a real shift
有多少是实质上的转变?
well it's not reflected necessarily in senatorial races
我想这些转变在参议员选举上看不出来
I'll show you some maps of congressional races
但在众议员选举的情况上有所表现
the patterns don't fit perfectly
不过那个变化和大选也不是完全吻合
and a lot of these wealthier suburban counties
很多富裕郊县的选民
I suspect that the vice presidential candidate in the Republican side cost a lot of vote among the more affluent educated
都因为共和党的副总统候选人放弃了对共和党的支持
we see this real drop-off in affluent educated voters for the Republicans
我们看到共和党高学历高收入的支持者大幅减少
so there are speculation that some of that may be Sarah Palin effect but of course that's debated
所以有人推测这是由于他们对萨拉佩林的不满 当然这种说法存在争议

she probably did increase voters in poor rural areas got out votes for the Republican side
佩林可能的确帮共和党赢得了更多农村和贫困地区的选票
but those are states that probably would have gone to Republican anyway
但这些州很可能本来就是泛红州（所以没什么用）
so that's again something for statisticians to talk about
这是统计学家要研究的问题了
the question has to do with all cultural polarization
他的问题和文化分歧有关
back to the 1960s
在20世纪60年代
it's a hippie redneck divide
出现了嬉皮士和守旧党两派
David Brooks a moderately conservative columnist a few years ago wrote a book about bobos bohemian bourgeoisie
大卫布鲁克 一个温和派的保守专栏作家 在几年前写过一本关于布波族的书
where he says the hippie value is got brought into the broadly mobile educated middle and upper classes
书中提到当嬉皮文化被受过高等教育且到处传播价值观的中上层阶级所接受
that's sort of in a way ended that division
这种分歧就渐渐消失了
but another people look at this map and say why is that you see here in this red zone
但也有人在看到这幅地图后说 为什么图中泛红的区域
if not this areas of mostly white population
都是以白人为主
relatively low levels of income, relatively low levels of education
他们大多收入较为微薄 受教育程度也低地区
not just voting Republican, but shifting in the Republican direction, unlike the rest of the country
他们不只支持共和党 还增加了对共和党的支持率 与其他大部分地方都不同
but it's not a national phenomenon
可见这不是一个全国性的转变
you can find many
还有其他地区
look at the rural areas in Montana
如蒙大拿州的农村地区
there you have this shift
也有县向共和党靠拢
so it's a regionally specific movement
这是一种地区性的转移
and that's what we do have here
的确是这样的

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。