听力文本

yes
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I think I read somewhere
我好像在哪里读到过
it said Arkansas would be the only state that went more Republican this time than before
有人说阿肯色是本届大选中 唯一一个共和党支持率比上届更高的州
Arkansas definitely did, Louisiana a little bit, Oklahoma a tiny bit
阿肯色的确如此 路易斯安那州也有小幅增长 俄克拉荷马也是
and I think Tennessee pretty much the same
田纳西州可能与上届基本持平
I have a graph that will show you that
我有一幅图展示了这些变化
yes the comment was Arkansas having a shift having undergone a red shift if you will
他刚才说阿肯色正在变化 变得更为泛红
whereas most of the country undergoing a pretty substantial blue shift
而大部分其他地区都大幅度地向民主党阵营靠拢
you can see overall just comparing the color patterns from 2004 to 2008
你看一看的 总体而言 04年和08年的选情颜色分布
pretty similar patterns overall but just bluer this time
是非常相似的 只是08年的蓝色面积更大
some other maps we have will tease this out better
一些其他的地图会更好地说明各州的转变

well yes here is from the Wikipedia I don't know if you can read this
这是一幅摘自维基百科的图 不知道你们看不看得清楚
but it is showing states from the most Republican voting Wyoming to the most Democratic voting in this election Hawaii
图中展示了从本届大选中最倾向共和党怀俄明州 到最支持民主党的夏威夷州
and then it shows you the change from 2004 to 2008
以及它们之间的州从04到08年的变化
and it's interesting
这是幅很有趣的图
here's Utah which is the 3rd most Republican voting
犹他仍是共和党支持率第三高的州
but look at the shift it made that had been actually by a pretty substantial margin from the most Republican voting
但看看它的支持率 其实正在大幅度地向蓝色转变 上届它是共和党支持率最高的州
whereas you can see Oklahoma no real change at all
俄克拉荷马州的支持率则几乎没变
actually a slight movement in the Republican direction
其实它轻微地向共和党方向移动了
here's Arkansas with a pretty substantial movement to Republican direction
我们看到在阿肯色明显对共和党支持率大增
Louisiana as well
路易斯安娜也是
states that really surprised a lot of people
有些州的选情出乎很多人的意料
Indiana for example that was the one state where 5 38 got wrong
例如印第安纳州 5 38对它估计错误
put in the Republican camp in the polling data and actually went for Barack Obama
根据民调预测它应该倾向共和党 而最终它支持的却是奥巴马
you can see North Dakota still Republican but a major major shift
北达科他州虽然让倾向共和党 但支持率大大下滑
Nebraska as well
内布拉斯加州也出现类似情况
even Texas with a big shift as well
就连德州也有向蓝营靠拢的倾向
some of the Democratic voting states didn't shift much at all
而传统的民主党支持州则没有出现太多变化
Massachusetts barely at all pretty much the same
马萨诸塞州的支持率几乎维持原样
whereas Vermont a pretty big gain
而佛蒙特州则更为倾向民主党
California pretty big gain as well
加州也呈现出更高的支持率
so in interesting way to see that if you want to check it out you can just go to Wikipedia to find that one
从这个角度考察选情是很有趣的 如果你想仔细研究 你可以去维基百科搜一下
here's my favorite map though
这是我最喜欢的地图
from the New York Times
摘自《纽约时报》
you can find this in a lot of websites
很多网站都引用了这幅地图
so what you're doing is showing the shift in county voting from 2004 to 2008
它显示出了04年大选到08年大选各县发生的转变
and if there mapped blue here that just means there's been a substantial movement
如果图中区域显示蓝色则说明该地奥巴马所获支持率
from what John Kerry had been getting to what Barack Obama got
与04年克里的支持率相比有大幅度提高
so they can be a very Republican voting county but if it moved in that Democratic direction it's mapped here as blue
所以即使是一个倾向共和党的县 只要它本届的民主党支持率有所提升 就会被描成蓝色
whereas if it moved in the Republican direction it's mapped in brown
同理如果共和党支持率有所提升 则被画成棕色
we can spend a lot of time finding patterns on this map
我们可以认真研究这幅地图传达的信息

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。