美国总统选举中的地理学(MP3+双语字幕) 第208期:2008美国总统大选(11)
日期:2018-03-14 07:37

(单词翻译:单击)

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and some interesting ones is
其中一个有趣的发现就是
one thing is states really seem to matter on this map
选情是以州为单位发生变化的
if you look back in...
如果你回顾
if you go back a few generations and look at county level data you finding states often matter a lot, especially in the south
过去的几届选举 并且观察县级的选情数据 就会发现州作为一个整体的影响力 尤其是在南方
a lot of these earlier elections you can just see a sharp line
在过去的大选中 你会发现选情随着州界而变化
where all the counties in South Carolina voted a certain way and you cross the border into North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee in there it was different
例如所有南卡的县都倾向某个阵营 而跨过州界 到了北卡 乔治亚和田纳西 他们则倾向另一个阵营
and that is really decayed, not as much of state level discipline from parties to get out the vote
但这种影响逐渐消失 各州对各党的支持变得不像过去那么绝对

2008美国总统大选(11)

but here you can see, you can see Indiana standing out virtually every county here having undergone this blue shift
但这里的图中你看到印第安纳的形状非常明显 几乎那里的每个县都一致地向民主党转移
you can see Arkansas
还有阿肯色州
almost every county undergoing a red shift
几乎每个县都出现了偏向红色的情况
some of them may be attributable to people from Arkansas being upset that Hilary Clinton didn't get the nomination
有些人认为阿肯色之所以这样 是因为他们对希拉里克林顿没有获得提名而感到沮丧
I think that was part of it
这的确是原因之一
but there are other things going on as well
但我认为还有其他原因
you can even see most counties in Tennessee
你看到田纳西大部分县也是棕色
you can compare Montana to Wyoming
对比蒙大拿和怀俄明的变化
Wyoming had a blue shift but not much
怀俄明有转蓝的趋势 但很轻微
Idaho had one again not much
爱达荷也是一样
but Montana had a very substantial movement
而蒙大拿州的变化却非常明显
some of that probably reflects the political leaders in Montana
这在变化也许是由于蒙大拿州的政治领袖
Senator Max Baucus for example a Democrat, Stanford grads, Stanford Law School grad as well, supporting Obama
如参议员麦克斯鲍卡斯是民主党人 斯坦福校友 斯坦福法律学院的毕业生 对奥巴马的大力支持
he is extremely popular in Montana
他在蒙大拿州很得人心
he won every county in Montana
他参选时获得了每一个县的支持
so that might be one reason for that
这可能是蒙大拿更倾向蓝色的原因之一

视频及简介
这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情,从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因,以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点:是投给民主党还是共和党呢?这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党,因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来,让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象,对此,他们常怀感激。


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