世界经济进入隐居消费时代(上)
日期:2023-11-01 10:00

(单词翻译:单击)

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Finance and economics

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财经版块

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Apart, together

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一起分开生活

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The world economy has entered a new era, that of the hermit consumer.

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世界经济进入了一个新时代:隐居消费时代t(~bzf=s%WsP

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In some ways covid-19 was a blip.

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在某些方面,新冠肺炎只是暂时性的问题LuNSW5=c60K+-Ck0

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After soaring in 2020, unemployment across the rich world quickly dropped to pre-pandemic lows.

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富裕国家的失业率在2020年飙升后,又迅速降至大流行前的低点EDalOJAJ_lmk

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Countries re-attained their pre-covid GDP in short order.

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各国GDP也很快恢复到了疫情前的水平&^kzE|Dz9JJTCEbXNwi

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And yet, more than two years after lockdowns were lifted, at least one change is enduring: consumer habits across the rich world have shifted decisively, and perhaps permanently.

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然而,在封控解除两年多后,至少有一个变化是持久的:富裕国家的消费者习惯已经发生了决定性的变化,这种变化可能是永久的GDV7-l,fHj

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Welcome to the age of the hermit.

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欢迎来到隐居时代u6p#Jmn.v*

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Before covid, the share of consumer spending devoted to services was rising steadily.

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在新冠之前,服务业占消费者支出的份额稳步上升5p4g4RNlY0YzgSVf

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As societies became richer, they sought more luxury experiences, health care and financial planning.

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随着社会变得更加富裕,消费者寻求更多的奢侈体验、医疗保健和财务规划服务iy+MEiw4FU4[HN=*Qb]

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Then in 2020 spending on services, from hotel stays to hair cuts, collapsed.

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然后在2020年,从酒店住宿到理发的各类服务支出大幅下降Yc3([C5JdkxwT

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With people spending more time at home, demand for goods jumped, with a rush for computer equipment and exercise bikes.

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人们更长时间地待在家里,对商品的需求随之激增,比如电脑设备和健身自行车,dJvh56l=N([B

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Three years on, the share of spending devoted to services remains below its pre-covid level.

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三年过去了,在服务方面的支出占比仍低于疫情前的水平2s#ZF&OvoS=B+t*

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Relative to its pre-covid trend, the decline is sharper still.

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与疫情前的趋势相比,下降的幅度更大T&~jh,onjj]8atNc

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Rich-world consumers are spending around $600bn a year less on services than you might have expected in 2019.

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富裕世界的消费者每年在服务上的支出比2019年的预期水平要少约6000亿美元w_hiGNHfJ,9_&VLTC

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In particular, people are less interested in leisure activities that take place outside the home, including hospitality and recreation.

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人们尤其对户外休闲活动的兴趣降低,包括酒店餐饮和各类娱乐]A0fUs7@DAvPd!Hu14

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Money is being redirected to goods, ranging from durables like chairs and fridges, to things such as clothes, food and wine.

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资金被重新用于购买商品,从椅子和冰箱等耐用品,到衣服、食物和葡萄酒等商品HjHGszt413G^+;-9Rnfz

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In countries that spent less time in lockdown, hermit habits have not become ingrained.

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在封控时间较短的国家,隐居习惯还没有变得根深蒂固Q%w#M-dN,bbhTSJ92N

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Elsewhere, though, the behaviour looks pathological.

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然而,在其他地方,隐居行为已变得有些不太正常40=;8[7Ydme

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In the Czech Republic, which was whacked by covid, the services share is three percentage points below trend.

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在遭受新冠重创的捷克共和国,服务业所占的消费份额比疫情前的趋势低3个百分点_.rVMl)fj2qAU,1@1N_5

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America is not far off.

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美国也快了*2%X9J[uX^mXd,py(

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Japan has witnessed a 50% decline in restaurant bookings for client entertainment and other business purposes.

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日本用于客户招待等商务目的的餐厅预订量下降了50%S[^0L%0u^Xm)A0]

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Pity the drunken salaryman staggering round Tokyo’s pleasure districts: he is an endangered species.

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那个摇摇晃晃地走在东京娱乐区的醉醺醺的上班族真是可怜:他已经是濒危物种了&.%XuIJRlWPL

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At first glance, the figures are difficult to reconcile with the anecdotes.

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第一眼看过去,这些数字与人们所说的情况并不相符E7%v]-|W4qH

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Isn’t it harder than ever to get a table at a restaurant?

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在餐厅订位子难道不是比以前更难了吗?

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Yet the true source of the crowding is not sky-high demand, but constrained supply.

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然而,拥挤的真正根源不是极高的需求,而是有限的供应MxiWoDJoomS*^p0I=U

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These days fewer people want to work in hospitality—in America employment in the industry remains lower than in 2019.

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如今,想在酒店餐饮业工作的人越来越少,在美国,该行业的就业人数仍低于2019年的水平z~E%Sy!vC8_kUqCxO

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And pandemic disruption means many new hotels and restaurants that would have opened in 2020 and 2021 never did.

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大流行的破坏意味着,许多本应在2020年和2021年开业的新酒店和新餐厅并没有开成|_liK95)iN%_nkT@6rh&

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The number of hotels in Britain, at around 10,000, has not grown since 2019.

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英国的酒店数量(约为1万家)自2019年以来一直没有增长U-P-O=x3Ku,CPg4Yl

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