战争对欧洲经济的影响(上)
日期:2023-03-01 10:00

(单词翻译:单击)

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Wartime Economics

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战时经济

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Europe dodges recession, but the continent's new normal looks grim.

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欧洲躲过了经济衰退,但欧洲大陆的新常态前景暗淡Z657zU97[E

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After three years of pandemic shutdowns, reopening booms, war, clogged supply chains and nascent inflation, European policymakers thought that 2023 would be the year the old continent returned to a new normal of decent growth and sub-2% inflation.

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在经历了三年的大流行封控、放开后的繁荣、战争、供应链阻塞和新出现的通胀之后,欧洲政策制定者本以为,2023年会是欧洲大陆恢复新常态的一年,即体面的增长率和低于2%的通胀率~vDn0NdFMH&%

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Europe’s economy is indeed settling down.

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欧洲经济确实正在稳定下来=UkrF+rl.vry7AE

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Unfortunately, though, the new normal is considerably uglier than economists had expected.

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然而,不幸的是,新常态远不如经济学家所预期的那样美好=WYrf3A@f=vW@fjX)D5v

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Start with the positives.

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先看积极的方面wQw@,%(zp&u2KW

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The euro zone has proved remarkably resilient, considering the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis.

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考虑到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和能源危机的冲击之大,事实证明,欧元区的有很强的韧性Mc.@9uE[JYNz

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Gas is now cheaper than it was on the eve of the conflict, after prices spiked last summer.

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去年夏天天然气价格飙升后,现在的价格比战争前夕更低S^O5C2*A&V[b

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Governments were not forced to ration energy as had been feared at first, in part thanks to unseasonably warm weather.

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政府没有像最初担心的那样被迫配给能源,这在一定程度上要归功于反常的温暖天气lc9;uV0tDhY,9oW

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Headline inflation, having reached a record 10.6% in October, is falling.

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总体通胀率在10月份达到了创纪录的10.6%,而现在正在下降Y+uJIz2JmCv,tHGOU

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Nor, as doom-mongers predicted, has industry collapsed because of the cost of fuel.

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工业也不像末日论者预测的那样,因为燃料成本而崩溃L5qVy#+d!2BEXfx9

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In Germany, energy-intensive factories have seen output drop by a fifth since the war started, as imports replaced domestic production.

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在德国,由于进口取代了国内生产,自战争开始以来,能源密集型工厂的产出下降了五分之一|H!G%j_@Nzoha+@ejE

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But production overall had fallen just 3% by the end of the year, in line with the pre-pandemic trend.

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但到去年年底,总产量仅下降了3%,与大流行前的趋势一致4x~^zhpdxXlcU#-g

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The latest IFO survey shows manufacturers as optimistic as they were before covid-19.

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IFO的最新调查显示,制造商和疫情前一样乐观d0w~IU,TO!*(lA]T

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Although Germany’s economy shrank slightly in the fourth quarter of 2022, the euro zone defied expectations of recession.

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虽然德国经济在2022年第四季度略有收缩,但欧元区没有衰退的迹象X9y4m^~H,Ar_

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According to the European Commission’s latest forecast, the bloc will avoid a contraction this quarter, too.

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根据欧盟委员会的最新预测,欧盟本季度也将避免经济收缩-7~q*p2^,QN&E(nwI

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Recent sentiment surveys support this projection.

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最近的情绪调查也支持这一预测0R_d+Y+BWu@P3XV

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The widely watched purchasing-managers’ index (PMI) has risen in recent months, suggesting a rosier picture is emerging in manufacturing and, especially, services.

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近几个月来,备受关注的采购经理指数有所上升,这表明制造业,尤其是服务业正在出现更光明的前景5J97v8W,-h*hNvVX4O

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Economic stability keeps people in jobs.

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经济稳定让人们保住了工作|s%y5fhUh-v1.=06qh@

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The number in work across the bloc rose again in the fourth quarter of 2022.

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2022年第四季度,整个欧盟的就业人数再次上升b.ctNI6qLThI2

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The unemployment rate is at its lowest since the euro came into existence in 1999; in surveys, firms indicate appetite for new workers.

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失业率处于1999年欧元问世以来的最低水平,在调查中,企业表示有意愿招聘新员工|7gd~y9cy8

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And jobs keep people spending.

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而工作让人们不断消费IdyZ=X[=)kI

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Despite high energy prices, consumption contributed half a percentage point to quarterly growth in the second and third quarters of 2022.

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尽管能源价格居高不下,但消费对2022年第二和第三季度的季度增长贡献了0.5个百分点p(,,7G19D7oQ*X

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In many countries, “the energy shock takes time to affect consumers because high prices are only passed on with a lag,” says Jens Eisenschmidt of Morgan Stanley, a bank.

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摩根士丹利银行的延斯·艾森施密特说,在许多国家,“能源冲击要过一段时间才会影响到消费者,因为高价格在传递影响时只会滞后”.b^8U.Fz-iq)9KxG)m

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“In the meantime, financial help from governments has helped households spend.”

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“与此同时,政府的财政援助帮助家庭继续消费(t3(BF=~b@D[!PW。”

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