欧洲为什么害怕量化紧缩?(上)
日期:2022-11-30 10:00

(单词翻译:单击)

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Finance & economics

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财经板块

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European finance: Frightening tightening

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欧洲金融:可怕的紧缩

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Europe’s central bankers are nervous about unwinding quantitative easing.

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欧洲央行行长们对退出量化宽松感到紧张,SDph-i2i;n4

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Central banks are finally getting into the swing of quantitative tightening (QT).

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各国央行终于开始实施量化紧缩政策(QT)#WS,O,+7%4#f

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The Bank of Canada has shed a fifth of its balance-sheet this year.

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加拿大银行今年已经削减了五分之一的资产负债表B4x(ovH@VZ

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The Bank of England held its first gilt auction on November 1st.

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英国央行在11月1日举行了首次国债出售操作+~-[4,7*UY^pXZvH#

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The Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet shrank by $85bn in October, twice the size of the reduction three months earlier.

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美联储的资产负债表在10月份缩水了850亿美元,是3个月前缩减规模的两倍W[Q~oF6T3*u!

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But in Europe, where officials have flirted with QT for months, the European Central Bank (ECB) is yet to let go of a single bond.

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但在欧洲,官员们几个月来一直在“玩弄”QT,而欧洲央行(ECB)一只债券都还未放开oIEfMDlAd1lDX2(k

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The continent’s central bankers have sent mixed messages about when QT will arrive.

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关于QT将于何时到来,欧洲大陆的央行官员发出了含混不清的信息4;VUY.g#TjR52gsJVH

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In September Christine Lagarde, the ECB’s president, said details would be provided after the bank finished raising interest rates.

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今年9月,欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德表示,具体细节将在欧洲央行完成加息后公布e#Ms#(^G[U!

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At a meeting on October 27th the ECB promised to lay out “key principles” in December.

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在10月27日的一次会议上,欧洲央行承诺将在12月制定出相关的“关键原则”YYvzDvPm5)+9[aAA&

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Five days later, Joachim Nagel of the Bundesbank said that Germany expected QT in early 2023.

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五天后,德国央行的约阿希姆·纳格尔表示,德国预计将在2023年初启动QTM2!fuK5f8-[(PPN257wU

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Pablo Hernando de Cos of Spain’s central bank sharply retorted that a longer wait was required.

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西班牙中央银行的巴勃罗·埃尔南德斯·德·科斯尖锐地反驳称,目前还需再等一段时间AJnIzy.[k;CmZ

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QT is a nerve-racking experience for all central bankers.

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QT对所有央行官员来说都很伤脑筋QpW&wRWlns(ow-V8n

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When buying bonds during quantitative easing (QE), policymakers were unsure about the impact of their growing balance-sheets.

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在量化宽松(QE)期间购买债券时,政策制定者并不确定他们不断增长的资产负债表会产生什么影响RKU7,U|jRzF

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In reverse, the uncertainty is greater, particularly given the fragility of financial markets and the global economy.

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反过来,不确定性就更大了,特别是考虑到全球经济和金融市场的脆弱性9bX^,aCVvZ4j5A

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Experiments with QT have gone wrong in the past, as in 2019 when the Fed roiled the Treasury market.

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QT的实验过去也出过问题,比如2019年,美联储就搅乱了美国国债市场ZHB]e3Ll1li

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And QT is particularly difficult for the ECB.

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而QT对欧洲央行来说尤其困难+SZr~]5L)e5K

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Most central banks have bought just one government debt.

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大多数央行只购买了一笔政府债券%O#(5,NLzE~C72Ds

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The ECB has 19 bond markets to worry about.

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欧洲央行目前有19个债市需要担心Xm_CNTuRlk&p

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One effect of QE is that it reduces the spread between the low borrowing costs of Germany and those of indebted economies like Italy.

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QE的一个效果是,它缩小了德国与意大利等负债累累经济体在低借贷成本方面的差距w0zg;DeL6O7^7c*KF8

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When inflation was low the ECB could pass this off as a side-effect of its stimulus.

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当通胀处于低位时,欧洲央行可以将此作为其刺激计划的副作用而不予理会!1~uTa3-u)kfl

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Now it is raising rates it must find other arguments in favour of containing spreads.

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而现在它正在加息,它就必须找到其他支持控制差距的理由PCr9Q+dl..sc&_

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