Investing genius-Mrs. Watanabes
投资天才——渡边太太
Nakako Ishiyama sits quietly in the living room of her apartment in the old Nihonbashi quarter of Tokyo, not far from its famous stone bridge—the point from which, in Edo times, all distances in Japan were measured. The neighboudiood was once part of the city’s financial district, and Ishiyama’s flat is strolling distance from the Bank of Japan, the venerable institution that controls the amount of yen in circulation and, via the interest rate it sets，the cost of money.
石山仲子静静地坐在公寓的客厅中，这里位于东京日本桥旧区，离著名的石板桥很近。江户时期,曾以石板桥为中心测童过通往日本各地的距离。附近区域曾是城市金融区的一部分。石山仲子居住的公寓出门几步远就是令人肃然起敬的日本央行,它通过调节利率和币值的手段达到控制流通日元的数量的目的。
Ishiyama serves green tea and autumn chestnut biscuits. She has been telling me about her investment history since around 2000~the time, not coincidentally, when the Bank of Japan first pushed interest rates down to within a hair’s breadth of zero. Largely without the knowledge of her husband, Ishiyama began investing the couple’s money，mainly in lots of around $ 50,000. And didn’t stop. Each ftmd in which she entrusted their retirement nest egg or toranoko, ‘tiger’s cub”, in Japanese- has a more elaborate name than the last. As she lists each one, she invariably adds as a suffix the words nantoka nantoka-“something or other” or "thingamajig," It is not altogether reassuring.
石山仲子端上一杯绿茶和一些秋栗酥。她向我讲述了自2000年以来她投资的经历。那时，日本央行首开先河将利率下调接近于零的水平,这并非偶然。在她的丈夫基本上不知情的情况下,她开始将夫妇俩攒下的大约5万美元用于投资。从那时起,她的投资活动就没停止过。对每一笔投资,她都用日语起了一个名字,比如“棺材本”、“虎崽”,名字一个比一个取得更用心。她列出每笔投资时，时不时在之后 加注上“某”、“之类的”这些后缀。总之,她自己心里也不是很有谱。
Shy and anxious (she refused to be photographed), 66-year-old Ishiyama does not look like someone who has played a role-however modest—in the drama that has engulfed the global financial system. Yet she and many of her peers have done exactly that. Japan’s housewives have acted as the guardians of the country’s vast household savings built up since its rise to prosperity after the devastation of war. At more than ￥ l，500，000bn (some $16，800bn)，these savings are considered the world’s biggest pool of investable wealth. Most of it is stashed in ordinary Japanese bank accounts; a surprisingly large amount is kept at home in cash, in tansu savings, named for the traditional wooden cupboards in which people store their possessions. But from the early 2000$, the housewives—often referred to collectively as ”Mrs. Watanabe”, a common Japanese surname—began to hunt for higher returns.
今年66岁的石山仲子腼腆害羞(她不愿自己的照片登报），不管怎么谦虚,都根本不像一个在这场席卷全球金融体系的戏剧中扮演某种角色的人。但她和很多同样的日本家庭主妇在这场危机中有自己的角色。她们是自日本战后繁荣时期家庭积聚的庞大储蓄的守护者。这笔储蓄高达1500万亿日元(约合16.8万亿美元)，被视为世界最大的投资财富源。大部分储蓄被存在普通的日本银行账户,还有很可观的一笔现金被存放在家中的财产存储的木柜中,这种传统的保险柜在日本被称为“tansu”。人们惯用日本最普通的姓氏称呼家庭主妇们为“渡边太太”。从本世纪初开始渡边太太”们开始热衷于高收益的投资。
Many were dissatisfied with the paltry interest rates banks were offering. The 0.02 percent return on a typical fixed-term deposit was so derisory that the annual payment on even substantial lifetime savings might come to a mere few hundred yen. “If you got a puncture on ttie way to the bank, you1 d be out of pocket，scoffs Ishiyama. She, like hundreds of tiiousands of others, found more appealing returns in foreign bonds and other overseas investments. "I was walking in tiie street and I saw a poster advertising a 5 percent interest rate. I got quite giddy with the idea,” she says, “I saw TV advertisements with everyone grinning and I thought: "I suppose it should be OK. ”
很多人对银行提供的低利率不甚满意。定期存款0.02%的回报率简直低得可笑,一生的积蓄存起来每年也只能等到几百日元的利息。石山仲子不无嘲笑地说:“如果你在去银行的路上扎了轮胎，这点利息钱就剩不下了。”同成千上万的日本妇女一样,她也发现了外国债券和其他海外投资能够带来很高的回报。她说广我走在街上时看到了一则广告，推销一种能提供5%利润的投资产品,我马上就动心了。我看到电视广告上每个人都笑得那么灿烂，我当时就想‘它一定没有问题’。”
It wasn’t long before the markets began to notice something was stirring. In the first half of 2003, individual Japanese investors bought 2,700bn yen of foreign bonds, easily a record. Brokers were delighted, partly because they made a killing on fees. But there was nervous chatter, too: if Japanese housewives opened the floodgates and sluiced money abroad, there could be a collapse in Japan’s enormous government bond market. Hitherto, the large sums of money trapped inside the country in savings had allowed the government to negotiate remarkably low rates of interest on the country’s massive foreign debt.
不久,市场开始注意到某些活跃的因素。据统计,仅2003年上半年，日本个人投资者共买入2.7万亿日元外国债券。那些经纪人非常高兴,部分原因是他们大賺了一笔。有人焦虑地表示:如果日本的主妇们打开储蓄的闸门，将资金投放到国外,那么本国庞大的政府债券市场有可能崩溃。截至目前，大量被限定在国内的储蓄资金使政府有能力对国家大量的外债保持非常低的利率。
Professional traders began to study Mrs. Watanabe，s every move. She impressed them by holding her nerve whenever the yen teitqwrarily strengthened, using each occasion as an opportunity to buy more foreign assets at knockdown prices. The lines of Mrs. Watanabes outside banks and brokerages became a barometer of what might happen to the yen. While highly-paid foreign-exchange traders dithered, Mrs. Watanabe cashed in and began to acquire the reputation of an investing genius. Some professionals quietly began to do whatever Mrs. Watanabe was doing.
专业的贸易商开始研究“渡边太太”们的每个举动。令他们印象深刻的是,这些主妇们在日元暂时走强时总能咬紧牙关,把握每一次机会以低价购人更多的外国资产。在银行和经纪业之外，'渡边太太”们的举动成为日元走势的晴雨表。当高收益的外汇贸易公司犹豫不决时渡边太太”们更像是投资天才,她们总能从中获得利润,以至于一些专业人士偷偷地跟随她们倾向的投资。