So why do so few managers get things right the second or third time?
那么为什么只有少数管理者能在第二次或第三次尝试中成功呢？
Let's consider one reason for failure - placing too much trust in the people who are running the successful operation, the 'experts' shall we say.
让我们考虑一个失败的原因，对以往经营成功案例的人太过信任，也就是我们所称的“专家”。
Managers who want to apply existing knowledge typically start off by going to an expert,
管理者想从专家身上运用已有的知识并征求他们的意见，
such as the person who designed and is running a successful department store - and picking their brains.
正是这些人设计并运营了一家成功的商店。
Now,this approach can be used if you want to gain a rough understanding of a particular system, or understand smaller,isolated problems.
这种方法可以用在当你想要了解某一特殊体系的概况或了解单独的小问题时。
The trouble is, even the expert doesn't fully grasp the whole thing because when it comes to complex systems,
问题是，因为一涉及这个复杂的系统，甚至专家都无法完全掌控整个局面，
the individual components of the process are interwoven with one another.
而且这个程序中的单个成份又与其他成份交织在一起。
The expert never has complete access to the necessary information.
专家从来都无法获得需要的信息。
And the situation's complicated even further by the fact that experts are usually not aware of their ownignorance.
而且专家对自己的无知还不自知，这使情况更加复杂。
The ignorance can take various forms.
这种无知可以表现为多种形式。
For instance, a lot of details of the system are invisible to managers.
例如，管理者看不到系统里的许多细节。
Some may be difficult to describe - learned on the job and well known by workers perhaps, but impossibleto describe in a way that's helpful.
也许有些细节在工作中知道却很难描述，并且工人们都清楚，但是他们不能用一种有效的方式表达出来。
And there are some things that people know or do that they're not even aware of.
还有一些甚至是人们在无意识的状况下知道或做的事情。