Tourist spending in Japan’s department stores has dropped for the first time since the start of Abenomics as the stronger yen and a tougher customs regime turn Chinese visitors away from gold watches and handbags and towards nappies and face cream.

在日元走强、中国关税制度收紧，使得中国游客从购买金表和手提包转向购买纸尿片和面霜之际，国际游客在日本百货商店的支出出现自安倍经济学启动以来的首次下滑。

Fears are growing that the stronger currency, which has risen about 12 per cent since last summer, may now threaten a tourism boom that continues to produce record numbers of arrivals.

人们越来越担心，日元走强（自去年夏天以来日元汇率已经上涨了约12%）如今可能威胁到旅游业的繁荣，在这场旅游业繁荣中，抵日游客数量仍持续处于创纪录水平。

Analysts say government plans to more than double tourism numbers and spending to 40m and ￥8tn ($73bn) respectively by 2020, are looking increasingly fragile and a prolonged phase of yen strength could even begin to hurt absolute tourism numbers when the floundering “Abenomics” programme needs them most.

日本政府计划在2020年年底前让游客数量增加一倍、至4000万人，让游客支出增加一倍、至8万亿日元（合730亿美元）。分析师称，该计划似乎越来越难以实现，同时，日元的长期走强甚至可能在陷入困境的“安倍经济学”最需要强劲的旅游业数据之际，开始打击旅游业数据的绝对数值。

“The recovery in Japanese economic conditions will be extremely weak if inbound tourism falls off,” said Hiroshi Watanabe, an economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “It also exposes the limits of Abenomics which has been too reliant on the weaker yen.”

“如果入境游客数量减少，日本经济状况的复苏将极度脆弱，”三井住友银行日兴证券(SMBC Nikko Securities)的经济学家Hiroshi Watanabe称，“这也暴露了安倍经济学的局限性——安倍经济学一直太过依赖于弱势日元。”

The April slump, which saw the most glamorous names in Japanese retail hit by a 9.3 per cent year-on-year fall in spending by foreign visitors, came despite a record surge in the overall number of tourist arrivals and a 7.8 per cent year-on-year rise in the numbers visiting Japan’s department stores.

4月，抵日国际游客总数增幅创下纪录，进入日本高档百货商店的国际游客人数同比增长7.8%，然而即便在这种情况下，国际游客对日本零售业知名品牌的支出依然同比下滑9.3%。

That paradox has led some retailers to fret that a long-dreaded moment has already arrived — the point where Chinese visitors, now representing a quarter of all arrivals to Japan so far in 2016, switch from being bulk acquirers to discriminating cherry-pickers.

这一看似矛盾的结果导致一些零售商担心，他们长期以来一直害怕的时刻已经到来，这个时刻就是：中国游客从扫货式购物者转变为有识别能力的挑剔买家。今年迄今，中国游客占到抵日国际游客总数的四分之一。

A significant factor, say analysts, is linked to the fact that an increasing proportion of Chinese visitors are now touring Japan for the second or third time. An additional drag on department store sales has been a newly toughened customs regime in China that was introduced in early April and aims to crack down on those returning with luxury goods to resell.

分析师称，其中一个关键因素与这一情况有关——如今越来越多的中国游客是第二次或第三次前往日本旅游。4月初中国收紧关税制度（旨在打击那些购买奢侈品回中国再次销售的代购），也对日本百货商店销售额构成额外打击。

While luxury goods have suffered, though, Chinese tourist spending on cosmetics continues to be extremely robust. Oliver Matthew, a retail analyst at CLSA in Tokyo, said there was an “implied shift in purchase patterns”. Shiseido, a cosmetics maker which has been a standout winner from the tourism boom, raised its annual target for sales to foreign tourists 30 per cent to ￥34bn.

不过，尽管奢侈品销售遭受打击，中国游客在化妆品方面的支出仍然极为强劲。里昂证券(CLSA)驻东京的零售业分析师奥利弗•马修(Oliver Matthew)称，“购买模式出现了内在转变”。化妆品制造商资生堂(Shiseido)一直是旅游业繁荣中的显著赢家，该公司已将对国际游客的年销售额目标上调了30%，至340亿日元。

In April, Japan received more than 2m tourists — the most in a single month and more than twice the number that arrived in April 2013 when Shinzo Abe had recently become prime minister and his effort to revive the Japanese economy had just begun.

4月，日本接待了逾200万游客，创下单月记录，比2013年4月安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)再次成为日本首相后不久、其重振日本经济的努力刚刚开始时的游客人数多一倍以上。

The sustained weakness of the yen between 2013 and earlier this year had a resounding impact on tourism, making food and travel cheaper for tourists and briefly making the price of the most popular luxury goods lower than in Hong Kong.

日元从2013年到今年年初的持续疲软，曾对旅游业产生显著影响，使得国际游客在日本的餐饮和旅行成本降低，还曾使得一些最受欢迎的奢侈品在日本的价格短暂低于在香港的价格。