Chinese stocks capped their worst three-day run in nearly two years yesterday, prompting worries that the world-beating rally that began late last year is poised for a reversal.
中国股市昨日创下近两年来最差的三日表现，令人担忧这场始于去年下半年、在全球表现最佳的上涨行情将发生逆转。
Since hitting a seven-year high on April 28, the Shanghai Composite index has lost 9 per cent, most of it in the past three days. The index is still up 70 per cent since November.
自4月28日创下7年高点以来，上证综指(Shanghai Composite)已跌去9%，大部分跌幅发生在过去三天。该指数较去年11月仍高出70%。

Several news items have spooked the market but analysts said profit-taking was the main factor, fuelled by a sense that a correction is due.
有几条新闻吓坏了市场，但分析师们表示，获利回吐是主要因素，而回调将至的心态起到了助推作用。
“The fundamentals have not changed significantly,” said Zhu Zhenxin, equity analyst at Minsheng Securities in Shanghai. “In the long term it’s still a bull market.
“基本面并未发生重大变化，”民生证券(Minsheng Securities)驻上海股票分析师朱振鑫表示，“长期来看，A股牛市趋势不变。”
“But this correction isn’t over yet. We expect the market will recover later this month, as expectations for another interest-rate cut start to strengthen.”
“但这次调整还没有结束。我们预计，随着市场对下一次降息的预期开始加强，本月晚些时候股市行情将会转好。”
Other analysts see a more fundamental shift under way. Morgan Stanley downgraded the MSCI China index yesterday from “overweight” to “equal weight”, its first downgrade in more than seven years.
其他分析师认为，更为根本的改变已经开始。昨日，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)将MSCI中国指数(MSCI China Index)的评级从“增持”下调至“持股观望”，这是7年多来的第一次调降。
Unlike the Shanghai Composite, MSCI China covers equities that are fully accessible to global investors, with Hong Kong shares as the main portion. The index has risen 44 per cent since November but since April 28 is down 7 per cent.
跟上证综指不同，MSCI中国指数纳入的是那些全球投资者可完全自由买卖的中国股票，主要是在香港上市的中国公司。该指数自去年11月以来上涨44%，但自4月28日以来下跌了7%。
“Dramatic recent outperformance has led to a deterioration in absolute and relative valuations and a technically overbought situation,” said Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley’s head of strategy for Asia and emerging markets. “We are known in the market for being bullish China — some might say perma bulls — so for us this is a big call.”
“近期超强行情导致了绝对和相对估值恶化，还有一种技术性超买局面，”摩根士丹利的亚洲及新兴市场股票策略主管乔纳森•加纳(Jonathan Garner)表示，“我们在市场上以看好中国闻名——有人可能称我们为永久看涨者——所以这对我们是一个重大判断。”
In 1993 a Morgan Stanley strategist, Barton Biggs, sparked a rally in Hong Kong when he declared himself “tuned in, overfed and maximum bullish” on China.
1993年，摩根士丹利策略师巴顿•比格斯(Barton Biggs)宣称他自己对中国“感兴趣，配置过高，极度看好”，结果引发了香港股市上涨。
Beyond valuations, other concerns are putting pressure on the market. Many Chinese securities brokerages have tightened margin lending requirements, requiring bigger haircuts on the face value of securities pledged for margin loans.
除估值之外，其他担忧也令市场承受压力。许多中国券商收紧了融资条件，要求在计算为获得保证金贷款而质押的证券的面值时，计入更大幅度的折让。
The securities regulator has repeatedly warned that brokers should control risk from margin lending, which has exploded.
证券监管机构多次警告称，券商应当控制保证金贷款的风险。此类贷款已出现爆炸性增长。
Credit Suisse estimates that in addition to the Rmb1.7tn in officially disclosed margin lending by brokers, Rmb1.4tn to Rmb1.7tn of loans have flowed into the stock market through other channels.
瑞信(Credit Suisse)估计，除官方披露的由券商提供的1.7万亿元人民币保证金贷款之外，通过其他渠道流进股市的此类贷款达到1.4万亿至1.7万亿元人民币。
These include “umbrella trusts”, in which trust companies sell wealth management products and channel the proceeds into loans to hedge funds. Big shareholders in listed companies have raised funds to play the market by pledging their shares.
这些渠道包括“伞形信托”，即信托公司出售理财产品，然后将所得以贷款形式提供给对冲基金。上市公司的大股东通过质押自己所持股票来获得炒股资金。
Vincent Chan, analyst of China equity at Credit Suisse, warned yesterday that mainland-traded “A shares” were poised for a fall, though he remained positive on Hong Kong-traded “H shares”, which are less richly valued.
瑞信中国股票分析师陈昌华(Vincent Chan)昨日警告称，内地“A股”注定会下跌，尽管他仍看好估值不那么高的香港“H股”。
“We think it is time for the A-share market to have some correction,” he said.
“我们认为，现在到了A股市场进行一定调整的时候了，”他说。