Denial is not a stockpicking strategy. Last year’s pastime, watching gold prices fall, has given way to watching oil prices drop. Yet analysts’ expectations for Chinese oil companies have not changed much. Oil prices have fallen a quarter since June. Analysts’ targets have been largely unmoved.
“否认现实”不是什么好的选股策略。去年人们的一项消遣是观看金价下跌，如今则变成了观看油价下跌。然而，分析师对中国石油企业的预期却没有发生多大改变。自今年6月以来，油价已下跌四分之一。分析师对这些企业给出的估值目标却基本未变。
Then, on Wednesday, Chinese oil producers Cnooc and PetroChina announced third-quarter earnings. Both missed analysts’ forecasts. Shares in PetroChina slipped 2 per cent and Cnooc dropped 5 per cent; analysts cut their recommendations on the latter. Oil prices were still not to blame. The problem was Cnooc’s production outlook. The previous growth goal of 6-10 per cent excluded Nexen, acquired last year. The outlook was unchanged but included the Canadian company, implicitly lowering the forecast.

本周三，中国油企中海油(Cnooc)和中石油(PetroChina)公布了第三季度盈利，盈利都不及分析师预期。中石油股价下跌了2%，中海油下跌了5%；分析师调降了对中海油的投资评级。但他们仍然没有把罪名扣到油价头上，而是认为中海油的产量前景堪忧。中海油此前6%至10%的增长目标并不包含去年购得的尼克森(Nexen)。此次虽然产量前景未作调整，但这是纳入这家加拿大公司之后的结果，这暗示着分析师调降了对这家公司的产量增长预期。
It is only one quarter. Hence PetroChina’s relative stability. But cheap oil may yet do more damage. Chinese majors price their sales off spot crude with a lag of about one month, according to Barclays. This means at least one more poor quarter to come. And even if a half year of weak earnings does not hit share price targets, sustained low prices must.
这只是一个季度，因此中石油还相对稳定。但便宜的石油还可能会带来更多伤害。巴克莱(Barclays)表示，中国石油巨头们的原油售价比国际现货原油价格滞后一个月左右。这意味着，疲弱的业绩至少还会持续一个季度。此外，即便半年疲软的盈利不会影响股价目标，油价长期处于低位也肯定会影响。
The mooted floor price for oil hovers around $80. Analysts’ long-term assumptions are higher. Barclays and JPMorgan, for instance, expect a long-term oil price of $95 and $90, respectively. Forecasts for the nearer years are higher yet. But if prices remain low, not only will profitability decline but production growth may be impacted, too.
有些人认为，油价的底部在每桶80美元左右。分析师的长期预期比这要高一些。例如，巴克莱和摩根大通(JPMorgan)分别预期长期油价为每桶95美元和每桶90美元。对未来几年油价的预期则更高。但如果油价仍然处于低位，不仅盈利水平会下滑，产量增长也可能会受到影响。
There is a positive. Markets are not buying analysts’ nonchalance. PetroChina and Cnooc’s share prices imply Brent in the mid $70s for Cnooc and about $80 for PetroChina, according to Barclays. Put differently, Cnooc’s share price implies $80 Brent and production growth of just 6 per cent – the low end of the company’s targets. So when analysts capitulate, the market may only shrug.
一个积极因素是，市场对分析师的镇定态度并不买账。巴克莱称，中石油和中海油的股价暗示着，就中海油的情况而言，布伦特(Brent)原油价格在每桶75美元左右，就中石油的情况而言，在每桶80美元左右。如果换种算法，那么中海油的股价暗示着，布伦特原油价格为每桶80美元、而产量增长只有6%——位于该公司产量增长目标的底端。因此，当分析师向现实投降时，可能并不会在市场中掀起多大波澜。