In an analysis of the challenges that gallerists are facing, Marc Spiegler, the global director of the Art Basel fairs, suggested last month that about 80 percent of the artists selling well today would be “basically unsellable” in 20 years.

巴塞尔艺术展全球总监马克·斯皮勒(Marc Spiegler)上月在一份分析画廊所面对挑战的文章中认为，当今销售情况良好的艺术家之中，有80%可能会在未来20年里“基本上什么都卖不出去”。

But that is perfectly fine, Mr. Spiegler wrote in The Art Newspaper, “because collecting contemporary art is about engaging with the zeitgeist.”

但这完全没有问题，斯皮勒在《艺术报》(The Art Newspaper)上写道，“因为收藏当代艺术已经成了时代精神的一部分。”

It remains to be seen whether such a result will be fine with the thousands of buyers who have been led to believe that contemporary art is also a lucrative investment.

对于成千上万名相信当代艺术是一种利润丰厚的投资的买家们来说，这样的结果是否能够接受尚不分明。

But Mr. Spiegler’s pronouncement, coming at what he characterized as “a starkly transitional moment in the art world,” is a timely reminder of the extent to which collecting is, and always has been, a gamble.

但是斯皮勒的宣言正好在一个被他称之为“艺术界一个非常关键的过度时刻”做出，它及时地提醒人们，艺术收藏是、且一直都是一种赌博。

“People buy contemporary art for a range of reasons,” said Guy Jennings, the managing director of the Fine Art Fund Group, an art investment and advisory company in London. “And they aren’t under any illusions that all their artists are going to go up in price.”

“人们出于各种各样的原因购买当代艺术品，”伦敦艺术投资与顾问公司“美术基金集团”(Fine Art Fund Group)总经理盖伊·詹宁斯(Guy Jennings)说。“他们并不会幻想买下的所有艺术家作品都会升值。”

“But we have become more financially minded,” he said. “At times like these, buyers will be more cautious and look to artists they think will survive.”

“但是我们也变得愈来愈有经济头脑，”他说。“像这样的时候，买家们会更加谨慎，寻找他们认为可以生存下来的艺术家。”

Last week, as the financial markets were buffeted by concerns about a global slowdown, works by hundreds of postwar and contemporary artists were offered at London’s annual February auctions and exhibitions. With the economic outlook seeming increasingly bearish, which names should buyers back in the face of a possible downturn?

上个星期，对全球经济放缓的担忧严重地打击了金融市场，与此同时，在伦敦年度的二月拍卖与展会上，展出了数百幅战后与当代艺术家的作品。经济前景日益下跌，面临可能的低迷期，买家们应该关注哪些名字呢？

The results in London offered some clues. At Sotheby’s contemporary sale on Wednesday night, individual prices far above presale estimates created a sense that the market was still booming. Examples were the 16.1 million pounds, or about $23.2 million, given by a telephone bidder for Lucian Freud’s 1961 portrait of his pregnant 17-year-old lover, Bernadine Coverley, valued at ￡7 million to ￡10 million, and the ￡3.1 million for “The Sunflowers in 1937,” a colossal 2014 faux van Gogh painting by the highly regarded Adrian Ghenie.

伦敦拍卖会的结果显示出了一些端倪。周三晚上，苏富比的当代艺术品拍卖会上，几个单件作品的成交价格远高出预估价，让人觉得这个市场还在繁荣期。比如一位电话买家以1610万镑（约合2320万美元），拍下了卢西安·弗洛伊德(Lucian Freud)1961年为怀孕的17岁恋人伯娜丁·卡芙利(Bernadine Coverley)绘制的画像，该作品预估价在700万至1000万英镑；而巨幅梵高仿作《1937年的向日葵》(The Sunflowers in 1937)拍出了310万英镑，作者是极受好评的艾德里安·格尼(Adrian Ghenie)。

Mr. Ghenie’s reputation was enhanced last year when he represented his native Romania at the Venice Biennale. Acquired by its seller less than two years ago from Galerie Judin in Berlin, “The Sunflowers” compellingly combines references to Nazi-era “degenerate art” with a monumental wall presence. Ten bidders pushed the price to more than five times the estimate of ￡400,000 to ￡600,000, reflecting the lengthy waiting list for Mr. Ghenie’s small output.

格林去年代表祖国罗马尼亚参加威尼斯双年展，因此声誉有了极大增长。不到两年前，这幅《向日葵》被这次的卖家从柏林的Galerie Judin画廊买下，它惊人地结合了对纳粹时期“堕落艺术”的映射，以及一面纪念墙的形象。十个拍卖者数次提价，把价格从预估的40万到60万英镑提高了五倍，表明格林的作品有多么供不应求。

Elsewhere, it seemed like wealthy buyers — and sellers — were keeping one eye on the high-end art and another on the financial market indexes.

此外，似乎富有的买家与卖家一面关注高端艺术市场，一面也在关注金融市场指数。

Overall numbers at Sotheby’s were down sharply. The 55-lot sale brought in a total of ￡69.5 million, 44 percent lower than the ￡123.5 million achieved at the company’s equivalent contemporary auction last February. Twenty-two percent of the lots were left unsold.

苏富比的拍卖总额出现大幅下跌。这场拍卖会提供了55件拍品，总共拍出了6950万英镑，和公司去年2月在地位同等的当代艺术品拍卖会上拍出的1.235亿英镑相比，下跌了44%。其中22％拍品没有拍出去。

Proceeds this year were dented by the 11th-hour withdrawal of a Gerhard Richter abstract valued at ￡14 million to ￡20 million. Neither the auction house nor a third party had been willing to risk guaranteeing the sale of such a high-value work in the current environment.

影响了今年收益的，主要是在最后关头的时候，一件预估价为1400万英镑到2000万英镑的格哈德·里希特(Gerhard Richter)的抽象作品没有拍出去。拍卖行与第三方都不愿冒险担保这样一件高价作品在如今的环境下能卖出去。

“Rightly or wrongly, the capital markets determine confidence levels,” said Andrew Terner, a private dealer based in New York. “It’s the psychology of the moment. The timing has to be right.”

“不管是对的还是错的，资本市场决定了信用等级，”纽约私人经纪商安德鲁·特纳(Andrew Terner)说，“这是当下的心理。时机必须正确。”

In midday New York trading on Friday, , Sotheby’s stock price was at $20.07 after having dropped 17.5 percent on Thursday.

周五的纽约午盘上，苏富比的股价是20.07美元，比周四降低了17.5%。

Year-on-year results at Christie’s on Thursday evening were even more bearish. The ￡58.1 million total achieved from its contemporary sale was down 50 percent from the February 2015 auction.

佳士得周四晚的拍卖会结果与去年同期相比更是凄惨。这场当代艺术拍卖会总共拍出了5810万英镑，比去年2月的当代艺术拍卖会下跌了50%。

But if, in general terms, buying museum-endorsed art from the last 100 years — like a Richter or a Ghenie — still remains almost the only game in town for the wealthiest art collectors, what about the more speculative market for artists with emerging reputations?

但是，如果总的来说，过去100年里，购买有博物馆担保的艺术品（如里希特和格尼的作品）仍然是富有艺术收藏家唯一的游戏，那么针对声誉鹊起的新艺术家们的相对更投机的市场又怎么样呢？

On Wednesday, Phillips held a day sale of 178 lots of 20th-century and contemporary art, and conspicuous by their absence were the “process-based” abstract paintings that had been the subject of lucrative resales at Phillips in the boom year of 2014. Once-hot names like Lucien Smith, Mark Flood and David Ostrowski were not in the catalog, and a small 2014 abstract by Dan Rees, “Gravelmaster,” estimated at ￡6,000 to ￡8,000, did not attract a buyer.

星期三，菲利普斯(Phillips)在日间拍卖会上拍出了178件20世纪与当代艺术品，引人注目的是，拍品中没有被称为“流程基本”的几位抽象画家作品，它们曾在2014年的好年头里成为菲利普斯的高额预拍品。卢西安·史密斯(Lucien Smith)、马克·弗拉德(Mark Flood)与大卫·奥斯特洛夫斯基(David Ostrowski)等一度炙手可热的名字都没有出现在拍品名录里，一幅丹·里斯(Dan Rees)2014年的小型抽象画《Gravelmaster》预估价在6000镑到8000镑，没有吸引到买家出价。

This kind of abstraction was looking “basically unsellable,” leaving three bidders to contest instead a safer Rudolf Stingel mock wallpaper painting from 2005 — in highly commercial gold enamel — to a top price of ￡386,500, just above the high estimate. Most prices at Phillips were at the low estimates, but 72 percent of the works did find buyers.

这类抽象作品似乎“基本上卖不出去”了，三名拍卖者转而竞拍一幅更安全的作品：鲁道夫·斯丁格尔(Rudolf Stingel)2005年有高价镀金层的仿壁纸油画，把价格抬到了38.65万镑，正好高过最高估价。菲利普斯拍卖会上的大多数拍品都以最低预估价成交，但72%的拍品都找到了买家。

Yet at the galleries that supply these auctions, collectors were continuing to pay significant sums for market-fresh works by artists who they think might still be in demand in the 2030s, or at least at the end of this decade.

然而在举办这些拍卖会的画廊里，收藏家们还在花费大笔金钱，购买新上市的艺术家作品，他们觉得到了本世纪30年代，至少是到了2020年左右，这些作品就会被市场需求。

The “Ecriture” paintings of Park Seo-bo, a pioneer of the recently re-evaluated Korean monochrome movement called Dansaekhwa, are on show through March 12 at White Cube Mason’s Yard in London. Fourteen of these contemplative calligraphic abstracts, ranging in date from 1967 to 1981, were released for sale by the artist, who is now 84, and all have sold for between $400,000 and $650,000.

韩国单色画(Dansaekhwa)的价值这几年正重新被世人认识，其先驱朴栖甫的作品《写作》(Ecriture)将于3月12日在伦敦的白立方梅森苑(White Cube Mason’s Yard)展出。这一系列的14幅当代书法抽象作品是这位现年84岁的画家于1967年到1981年期间创作的，已经全被售出，价格在40万美元到65万美元之间。

Nate Lowman, 37, is a New York artist whose 2011 “Marilyn” paintings, which cannily combine echoes of de Kooning and Warhol, resold for as much as $870,000 at auction in 2014. On Tuesday evening, the London gallery of Massimo de Carlo presented some 15 black-and-white paintings by Mr. Lowman derived from photographs of the elaborately patterned ceiling of his studio. Priced at $120,000 to $250,000, four of these paintings quickly found buyers, with several others on hold.

37岁的内特·洛曼(Nate Lowman)是一位纽约艺术家，他于2011年创作的《玛丽莲》(Marilyn)系列油画巧妙地结合了德库宁(de Kooning)与沃霍尔(Warhol)的影响，2014年重新拍卖时，拍出了87万美元。周二晚上，伦敦玛西莫·德·卡洛(Massimo de Carlo)画廊将推出15幅洛曼的黑白油画，素材来自他工作室花纹精美的天花板的照片。这些画定价在12万美元到25万美元，其中四幅很快找到了买家，有几幅没能卖出去。

Something quite different was on offer at Condo, a new collaborative exhibition by 24 emerging galleries spread across eight spaces in London.

Condo是一个由24个新画廊最近推出的合作展，在伦敦的八个空间举行，提供了一些不同的东西。

The event, which began Jan. 16 and ends on Saturday, was conceived by Vanessa Carlos, a co-founder of the London gallery Carlos/Ishikawa, as a cost-effective alternative to fairs. Dealers from a range of countries paid just ￡600 to be guest exhibitors. Unlike at a fair, entrance for visitors was free. Prices for work were generally in four figures.

这项活动自1月16日开始，于本周六结束，它与艺术展会相比，可谓经济实惠，创意来自凡妮莎·卡洛斯(Vanessa Carlos)，她是伦敦画廊卡洛斯/石川(Carlos/Ishikawa)的联合创始人。各国交易商花费600镑，就可以成为参展者。和艺术展会不同，参观者是免费进入的。作品价格一般在四位数左右。

“The habit of collectors going to galleries has diminished because of art fairs,” said Tom Cole, a co-director of The Sunday Painter, a gallery in Peckham, in southeast London. “Trying to find alternative models to show a program and get a name out there has become more and more important.”

“由于艺术展，收藏家已经没有进画廊的习惯了，”西南伦敦佩卡姆的“星期日画家”(The Sunday Painter)画廊的总监之一汤姆·科尔(Tom Cole)说，“找到另一种展出项目的模式，推出新画家，已经变得愈来愈重要。”

Mr. Cole said that about 500 people visited his gallery on the first Saturday of Condo, compared with the 10 or 20 who might attend the Saturday of a typical exhibition. Among his sales was “Not Too Clever Emoticon,” a 2013 sculpture made from a glass-panel heater by the gallery’s artist Rob Chavasse, priced at ￡4,000.

科尔说，在Condo展开展的第一个周六，有大约500人参观了他的画廊，平日里周六大约只有10到20人来。他出售的作品包括《不怎么聪明的图示》(Not Too Clever Emoticon)，这是一件2013年的雕塑作品，由玻璃板加热器制成，作者是画廊签约艺术家罗布·查瓦斯(Rob Chavasse)，标价为4000英镑。

Largely free from the commercial pressures of an art fair, Condo displayed works that could also be refreshingly confrontational. Arcadia Missa, also in Peckham, showed a joint multimedia installation combining works by the American artist A.L. Steiner, of the collective Chicks on Speed, and the British feminist artist Phoebe Collings-James. The latter’s 2016 sculpture “Oh My Darling, Clementine,” consisting of two glazed ceramic clementines in a plastic netting bag, was sold for a price between ￡1,000 and ￡2,000.

Condo几乎没有艺术展需要面对的商业压力，展出的作品中不少都颇具挑衅性，令人眼前一亮。阿卡迪亚·米沙(Arcadia Missa)画廊同样位于佩卡姆，展出了一个联合多媒体装置作品，是由美国艺术家A·L·斯坦纳(A.L. Steiner)与英国女权主义艺术家菲比·柯林斯-詹姆斯(Phoebe Collings-James)合作的，斯坦纳属于“Chicks on Speed”组织，柯林斯-詹姆斯2016年的雕塑《啊我亲爱的小柑橘》(Oh My Darling, Clementine)是两个闪亮的陶制小柑橘，放在一个塑料网兜里，价格在1000英镑到2000英镑。

At this price level, collectors can happily engage with the zeitgeist, without worrying too much if the work they bought will be salable a few decades down the road.

在这个价格水平上，收藏家可以愉快地成为时代精神的一部分，同时又不至于担心这件作品到头来要过几十年才能卖出去。