Chinese men now smoke one-third of all the world’s cigarettes, and a third of all young men in China are doomed to eventually die from the habit, scientists in China and Britain have concluded.

中英两国的科学家推断，眼下中国男性抽的香烟数量占全世界的三分之一，且中国三分之一的年轻男性注定终究会死于吸烟这个习惯。

Their study, published last week in The Lancet, estimated that two-thirds of all males in China smoked, more were still taking up the habit and more were starting as teenagers, which adds risk.

上周，他们的研究论文发表在了《柳叶刀》(The Lancet)上。文章估计，中国三分之二的男性吸烟，此外还有更多人正在沾染吸烟的习惯，从十几岁就开始吸烟的人也增多了。从十几岁就开始吸烟会加剧健康风险。

With population growth stagnant, the number of men 60 or older is expected to double by 2030, and the number dying of smoking-related ailments each year will triple, hitting three million a year by 2050.

随着人口增长停滞，到2030年，60岁或以上的男性人数预计会翻一番，而死于和吸烟有关的疾病的人数每年都会增加两倍，并在2050年达到每年300万。

More smokers are stopping by choice, the study found, but still only 9 percent did so.

研究发现，选择戒烟的吸烟者增加了，但依然只有9%的人戒烟。

By contrast, smoking rates among women in China have dropped sharply; about 10 percent of older women smoke, but only about 1 percent of middle-aged women do. However, another recent study detected rapid increases among teenage girls in some regions.

相比之下，中国女性吸烟者的比例显著下降。年纪较大的女性中，大约10%的人吸烟，但在中年女性中，吸烟者仅占大约1%。然而，最近的另一项研究发现，部分地区十几岁的女孩中吸烟者人数增加迅速。

Before China achieved prosperity, the Lancet study said, smokers typically started at age 25, more smoked pipes and many could not afford multiple cigarettes every day.

《柳叶刀》上的文章称，中国经济繁荣之前，吸烟者通常是从25岁开始的，并且抽烟斗的人更多，很多人负担不起每天吸好几根烟。

The study estimated future smoking-related deaths from many causes, including lung cancer, obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke, heart failure and other cancers. Lung disease rates are already high in China, even among nonsmokers, owing to urban air pollution and to indoor wood fires used by the rural poor.

文章预计，未来和吸烟有关的死因会有很多，包括肺癌、阻塞性肺病、中风、心力衰竭和其他癌症。在中国，因为城市的空气污染和农村地区贫困人口在室内烧柴，即便是在不吸烟的人群中，肺病的发病率也已经相当高了。

The study was led by scientists from China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and the University of Oxford.

领导该研究的科学家来自中国疾病预防控制中心、中国医学科学院和牛津大学。

Antismoking efforts in China face a difficult political situation: The central government has a monopoly through the Chinese National Tobacco Corporation, and more than 7 percent of government revenue comes from it.

中国的禁烟行动面临困难的政治形势，中央政府通过中国烟草总公司实行烟草专卖，超过7%的政府收入来自该公司。

According to an editorial accompanying the study, myths about smoking persist in China: that Asians are less susceptible to its dangers, that it is an ancient Chinese tradition and that quitting is easy.

与该论文一同发表的一篇评论文章称，在中国，有关吸烟的谬论经久不衰，如亚洲人不那么容易受吸烟的危害、吸烟是中国的古老传统，以及戒烟很容易。